Residents take out a procession to commemorate the martyrs of the 1971 war in Fazilka on Thursday. Tribune Photo

Fazilka: Hundreds of citizens today converged on the main road to join the unique ‘Victory Parade’ that was taken out to commemorate 206 martyrs of the 1971 Indo-Pak war who had laid down their lives in the Fazilka sector on the eve of Vijay Diwas. The town was decorated with flowers and the clock tower was decked up beautifully for the occasion. There was festive spirit across the town. The event was conceived by citizens of Fazilka under the banner of the Shaheedon ki Samadhi Committee, Asafwala (Fazilka), which has been maintaining the Asafwala War Memorial for more than four decades. oc

AN-32 courier service on the cards

Tribune News Service

Srinagar, December 15

Various issues related to the operation of AN-32 courier flights between Srinagar and Kargil were discussed at an officers’ meeting here today. The authorities concerned were directed to maintain close coordination for smooth operation.The Additional Commissioner, Kashmir, directed the agencies concerned to also use social networking for better dissemination of information regarding flight cancellation, if any, on a real-time basis.The meeting decided that the AN-32 courier service would operate as per past practice from Srinagar to Kargil and back.

Army celebrates Swachh Bharat fortnight

Army men carry out a cleanliness drive at the Abohar military station on Thursday. Tribune Photo

Our Correspondent

Abohar, December 15

A ‘swachhata’ (cleanliness) fortnight, which was part of the ‘Swachh Bharat Mission’, concluded today at Abohar military station.Sainik sammelan in the Army units, photo display at public places, garbage disposal and a community cleaning drive were conducted at the station.All families at the military station took part in different events. A discussion for women was also conducted to bring about awareness on household cleanliness.Also, water storage, garbage disposal and personal hygiene were the focus areas of the cleanliness fortnight. The fortnight concluded with a lecture on the ‘Swachh Bharat Mission’ for the families residing at the military station.

At 4.30 p.m. on Tuesday, in a historic moment for India’s artillery programme, an indigenous, fully integrated, 155-millimetre artillery gun fired its first rounds of live ammunition at the Proof and Experimental Establishment (PXE) in Balasore, Odisha.

The 155-mm, 52-calibre gun, dubbed the Advanced Towed Artillery Gun System (ATAGS), has been developed by the Defence R&D Organisation (DRDO), in partnership with two private sector firms — the Kalyani Group and Tata Power (Strategic Engineering Division) — and the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB), which is owned by the Ministry of Defence (MoD).

Business Standard learns that Tuesday’s firing trials, and a second round of testing on Wednesday, met the specified parameters. Although extensive testing remains to be carried out in the months ahead, a project manager describes the actual firing as a “major milestone”.

The shortage of 155-mm, 52-calibre artillery is widely considered the Indian Army’s most worrying shortfall. Over the preceding 18 years, several international tenders for buying 1,580 towed guns from the international arms market have stalled. Consequently, no new 155-mm guns have entered the army since the purchase of 410 Bofors howitzers 30 years ago.

With the spectre of Bofors dogging international procurement, the DRDO charged its Pune-based Armament Research & Development Establishment (ARDE) with the ambitious ATAGS project to develop an indigenous towed gun.

“In the ATAGS programme, we are developing two parallel sources to cut the risk of delays. The private sector is extensively involved under the prime minister’s “Make in India” initiative. This would allow us to open two manufacturing lines, to meet the large numbers gun requirements of the services”, said Dr S Christopher, the DRDO chairman.

In addition, the artillery-starved army has several other gun procurements in hand. The OFB used manufacturing blueprints supplied by Swedish company, Bofors, with the controversial 1986 purchase of 410 FH-77 howitzers, to develop an indigenous 155-mm, 45-calibre gun.

A higher calibre denotes a longer barrel and, consequently, a longer range. Upgrading the 39-calibre Bofors into the 45-calibre Dhanush has increased the gun’s range from 27 kilometres to 35 kilometres (with enhanced range ammunition).

On August 5, the defence minister told parliament that an indent for 114 Dhanush guns had been placed with the OFB. Analysts believe that if these guns satisfy the army, the order could increase to as many as 400 guns.

Separately, New Delhi has signed a contract with Washington for 145 ultralight guns of 155-mm, 39-calibre, built by BAE Systems in the US, the defence minister told parliament on December 2.

In November 2014, the MoD sanctioned 814 mounted gun systems (MGS) for an estimated Rs 15,750 crore. Tenders are also out for 100 tracked (self-propelled) guns; and 180 wheeled (self-propelled) guns. All these are 155-mm, 52-calibre guns.

Towed guns are employed in plains and foothills; tracked (self-propelled) guns are mounted in armoured vehicles to support high-mobility tank formations; wheeled (self-propelled) guns are for fast-moving, non-armoured formations; The MGS is a regular 155-millimetre gun fitted onto a high mobility vehicle, allowing it to move faster and start firing quicker than a conventional towed gun.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Army’s artillery black hole: 155-millimetre guns in the pipeline”
– 1,580 towed artillery guns for Rs 25,000 crore
– 114 Dhanush guns from Ordnance Factory Board
– 145 Ultralight howitzers from BAE Systems for Rs 5,000 crore
– 814 Mounted Gun Systems (MGS) for Rs 15,750 crore
– 100 Tracked Self Propelled (SP) guns 180 Wheeled Self Propelled (SP) guns

One gun project is being pursued by Tata Power (SED), while the other is working in parallel under the Kalyani Group. The OFB and Bharat Forge are making the barrels.

Going by specifications, the ATAGS is a world-beater. Its “extended range, base-bleed” ammunition has a range of 45 kilometres — more than any 155-mm, 52 calibre gun in service. ATAGS also has an “all-electric drive”, which is more reliable than conventional hydraulic drives, and improves reaction time and accuracy.

With each ATAGS likely to be priced at Rs 15-18 crore, the contract for building 1,580 towed guns would add up to more than Rs 25,000 crore.

In war, most soldiers are killed or wounded by artillery fire, which is usually fired from 20-30 kilometres away. When an enemy position is to be attacked, artillery is used to pulverize it so that one’s own tanks and infantry soldiers easily overrun it, with minimal hand-to-hand fighting.

India has about 264 artillery regiments, each having 21 guns (including reserves). Many regiments currently deploy lighter, 105-mm “field guns”, but the army plans to make 155-mm its basic gun, since its heavier shell causes more enemy casualties.

If even 150 of India’s artillery regiments are converted to 155-mm guns, that would require 3,150 guns — twice what was earlier tendered, adding up to about Rs 50,000 crore.

On November 25, the defence minister told parliament that the ATAGS was one of the DRDO’s “mission mode” projects. He said the ATAGS was to have been completed by September 2015, but the date had been extended to March 2017.

Aziz reached Amritsar last evening to attend the Heart of Asia conference. File photo

Islamabad, December 4

Pakistan’s media on Sunday took note of the handshake and exchange of niceties between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistan prime minister’s advisor on foreign affairs Sartaj Aziz at Amritsar amid deadly border skirmishes and rhetoric.Aziz reached Amritsar last evening to attend the Heart of Asia conference, instead of this morning apparently to dodge early morning fog.The change of schedule provided a subtle opportunity for a handshake and exchange of pleasantries with Modi who hosted a banquet for the delegates.The Express Tribune’s front-page headline said, “Aziz-Modi handshake sets off media frenzy”, and wrote under it: “After months of war rhetoric and deadly border skirmishes, Indian and Pakistani officials exchanged niceties and set the media abuzz on Saturday”.”With a broad smile on his face, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shook hands with Pakistan’s Foreign Affairs Adviser Sartaj Aziz at a banquet he had hosted for the participants of the Heart of Asia conference in Amritsar,” the article said.The paper reported that Modi also asked about the health of his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif who had recently undergone open-heart surgery in a London hospital.Aziz conveyed “good wishes” to the Indian leader on behalf of Sharif.The Dawn reported that Aziz was received by Pakistan High Commissioner to India Abdul Basit and the joint secretary of Indian Ministry of External Affairs.”Sartaj Aziz also sent a bouquet to Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj at her residence, extending his sincere good wishes for her full and speedy recovery,” it said.The News International reported that Modi shook hands with Aziz and inquired after the well being of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from him.”Aziz said Nawaz Sharif is well and he has also expressed good wishes for him,” it further reported.It also reported that Aziz sent a bouquet to Swaraj at her residence extending good wishes for her speedy recovery. Pakistan was unanimous that no meeting between Pakistani and Indian officials on the sidelines was expected due to the ongoing bilateral tension.”Contrary to Indian media reports, no actual talks took place during the banquet. Nonetheless, the customary handshake after months of belligerence and hostilities set off media frenzy in both countries,” according to the Express Tribune.Relations between India and Pakistan have been strained following the Uri terror attack in September that killed 19 Indian soldiers. — PTI

Ajay Banerjee

New Delhi, December 26

In a major leap for India’s defence scientists, the country has moved closer to an exclusive club of countries having abilities to deliver a nuclear warhead at a distance of more than 5,550 km.The fourth consecutive test of the long-range ballistic missile Agni-V was successful this morning. The version fired today is road-mobile-on-truck, and is the one that is ‘final delivery version’ for deployment by the Army. The 50-tonne missile is in its final stage of tests before it can be inducted. No dates have been given for induction and this being a nuclear-tipped missile, there seems little possibility of a formal announcement. The missile can be moved on specialised trucks, allowing greater scope of rapid deployment. Today, the Agni-V’s re-entry system worked perfectly. The nose-cone that encases the warhead is made of composites, which can withstand a searing temperature of 3,000 degrees Celsius when the missile re-enters the earth’s atmosphere.The Agni series are nuclear-warhead capable with Agni-I being the lowest end of the spectrum having a range of 700 km. The Ministry of Defence said, “Agni-V, the long range surface-to-surface ballistic missile, was successfully flight-tested by DRDO from Abdul Kalam Island (new name for Wheeler Island), Odisha.”President Pranab Mukherjee, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar congratulated the DRDO for the successful test-firing. The previous successful missions were executed on April 19, 2012, September 15, 2013, and January 31, 2015. 

1. Major SPS Waraich IC-12712 15 Punjab

2. Major Kanwaljit Singh Sandhu IC-14590 15 Punjab

3. 2/Lt Sudhir Mohan Sabharwal SS-23957 87 Lt Regiment

4. Capt Ravinder Kaura SS-20095 39 Med Regiment

5. Capt Giri Raj Singh IC-23283 5 Assam

6. Capt Om Prakash Dalal SS-22536 Grenadiers

7. Maj AK Ghosh IC-18790 15 Rajput

8. Maj AK Suri SS-19807 5 Assam

9. Capt Kalyan Singh Rathod IC-28148 5 Assam

10. Major Jaskiran Singh Malik IC-14457 8 Raj. Rifles

11. Major SC Guleri IC-20230 9 Jat

12. Lt Vijay Kumar Azad IC-58589 1/9 G R

13. Capt Kamal Bakshi IC-19294 5 Sikh

14. 2/ Lt Paras Ram Sharma SS-22490 5/8 G R

15. Capt Vashisht Nath

16. L/Hv. Krishna Lal Sharma 13719585 1 JAK RIF

17. Subedar Assa Singh JC-41339 5 Sikh

18. Subedar Kalidas JC-59 8 JAKLI

19. L/Nk Jagdish Raj 9208735 Mahar Regiment

20. L/Nk Hazoora Singh 682211303

21. Gunner Sujan Singh 1146819 14 Fd Regiment

22. Sepoy Daler Singh 2461830 15 Punjab

23. Gnr Pal Singh 1239603 181 Lt Regiment

24. Sepoy Jagir Singh 2459087 16 Punjab

25. Gnr Madan Mohan 1157419 94 Mountain Regiment

26. Gnr Gyan Chand Gnr Shyam Singh

27. L/Nk Balbir Singh S B S Chauhan

28. Capt DS Jamwal 81 Field Regiment

29. Capt Washisht Nath Attock

Indian Air Force

30. Sq Ldr Mohinder Kumar Jain 5327-F(P) 27 Sqn

31. Flt Lt Sudhir Kumar Goswami 8956-F(P) 5 Sqn

32. Flying Officer Sudhir Tyagi 10871-F(P) 27 Sqn

33. Flt Lt Vijay Vasant Tambay 7662 –F(P) 32 Sqn

34. Flt Lt Nagaswami Shanker 9773-F(P) 32 Sqn

35. Flt Lt Ram Metharam Advani 7812-F(P) JBCU

36. Flt Lt Manohar Purohit 10249(N) 5 Sqn

37. Flt Lt Tanmaya Singh Dandoss 8160-F(P) 26 Sqn

38. Wg Cdr Hersern Singh Gill 4657-F(P) 47 Sqn

39. Flt Lt Babul Guha 5105-F(P)

40. Flt Lt Suresh Chander Sandal 8659-F(P) 35 Sqn

41. Sqn. Ldr. Jal Manikshaw Mistry 5006-F(P)

42. Flt Lt Harvinder Singh 9441-F(P) 222 Sqn

43. Sqn Ldr Jatinder Das Kumar 4896-F(P) 3 Sqn

44. Flt Lt LM Sassoon 7419-F(P) JBCU

45. Flt Lt Kushalpal Singh Nanda 7819-F(N) 35 Sqn

46. Flg Offr. Krishan L Malkani 10576-F(P) 27 Sqn

47. Flt Lt Ashok Balwant Dhavale 9030-F(P) 1 Sqn

48. Flt Lt Shrikant C Mahajan 10239-F(P) 5 Sqn

49. Flt Lt Gurdev Singh Rai 9015-F(P) 27 Sqn

50. Flt Lt Ramesh G Kadam 8404-F(P) TACDE

51. Flg Offr. KP Murlidharan 10575-F(P) 20 Sqn

52. Sqn Ldr Devaprasad Chatterjee

53. Plt Offr Tejinder Singh Sethi

He has participated in Indian Peace Keeping Operations (IPKF) in Sri Lanka, United Nations Peace Keeping in Namibia, Counter Insurgency and Counter Terrorist operations in Manipur and Jammu and Kashmir.

Lieutenant General Devraj Anbu, AVSM, YSM, SM

GOC-in-C, Northern Command

 on Wednesday was appointed as the new chief of strategically important Northern Command in place of Lt Gen D S Hooda, who retires at the end of this month. The Appointments Committee of Cabinet headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi cleared the name of Anbu for the post of General Officer-in-Commanding-in-Chief (GOC-in-C) with effect from December 1. Udhampur-based Northern Command is a strategically important army formation that overlooks the functioning of Srinagar-based 15 Corps, Jammu-based 16-corps and Leh-based 14-Corps. Anbu was posted as the Corps Commander of Tezpur-based 4 Corps. His last posting in Jammu and Kashmir was as a Brigadier in 2008-09.

He takes over at a time when exchange of fire along the Line of Control has been happening quite frequently especially after the Indian army carried out surgical strikes on September 29 this year, killing at least 19 Lashker-e-Taiba militants inside the territory in Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir. Lt Gen Anbu Commissioned in the Sikh Light Infantry Regiment in June 1980 has had a distinguished military career in which he has executed important Command and Staff appointments in India and abroad. He has participated in Indian Peace Keeping Operations (IPKF) in Sri Lanka, United Nations Peace Keeping in Namibia, Counter Insurgency and Counter Terrorist operations in Manipur and Jammu and Kashmir.

He was awarded the Sena Medal Gallantry for operation in Siachen Glacier. The General has also been awarded Ati Vishisht Seva Medal and Yudh Seva Medal for his distinguished service.

Northern Command (India)

North Western Army” redirects here. For the Chinese revolutionary army, see Guominjun.

Northern Command
Northern Command’s insignia today
Active	1908-1947 1972 – Present
Country	India
Branch	Indian Army
Type	Command
Garrison/HQ	Udhampur
Commanders
Current commander	Lt Gen Devraj Anbu

The Northern Command is a Command of the Indian Army. It was originally formed as a formation of the British Indian Army in 1895, scrapped upon India‘s independence in 1947 and later reformed in 1972. Its present commander is Lt Gen Devraj Anbu.^[1]

History

The Presidency armies were abolished with effect from 1 April 1895 when the three Presidency armies became the Indian Army.^[2] The Indian Army was divided into four Commands (Bengal Command, Bombay Command, Madras Command and Punjab Command) each under a lieutenant general.^[2]

In 1908, the four commands were merged into two Armies (Northern Army and Southern Army): this system persisted until 1920 when the arrangement reverted to four commands again (Eastern Command, Northern Command, Southern Command and Western Command).^[2] Northern Command was re-formed again as North Western Army in April 1942 to guard the North West Frontier. It controlled the Kohat, Peshawar, Rawalpindi, Baluchistan and Waziristan Districts.^[3] The former Western Command, was absorbed by the new North Western Army at that time.^[4] The formation reverted to the title Northern Command in November 1945.^[5]

In 1947 Headquarters Northern Command became the new headquarters of the Pakistan Army. General Sir Frank Messervy continued to serve as Chief of Staff of the Pakistan Army from 1947 to 1948.^[6]

Composition 1942-45

The composition was:

• 7th Indian Infantry Division, April 1942 to January 1943
• 84th Indian Infantry Brigade, May 1942 to October 1943
• 33rd Indian Infantry Brigade, July 1942 to December 1942
• 55th Indian Infantry Brigade, July 1942 to September 1942
• Risalpur Training Brigade (15 Nov 1940-April 1944) then redesignated 155th Indian Infantry Brigade, April 1944 to August 1945^[3]

Commanders prior to Independence

Commanders included:^[7]
General Officer Commanding-in-Chief Punjab Command

• 1895 – 1898 Major-General Sir William Lockhart
• 1898 – 1899 Major-General Sir Arthur Palmer
• 1899 – 1901 Major-General Sir Charles Egerton
• Oct 1901 – 1907 Lieutenant-General Sir Bindon Blood

General Officer Commanding-in-Chief Northern Army

• 1907 – Nov 1908 General Sir Alfred Gaselee
• Nov 1908 – Oct 1910 Lieutenant-General Sir Josceline Wodehouse
• Oct 1910 – Aug 1914 Lieutenant-General Sir James Willcocks
• Aug 1914 – Feb 1915 Lieutenant-General Sir Robert Scallon
• Feb 1915 – Apr 1915 General Sir John Nixon
• May 1916 – Nov 1920 General Sir Arthur Barrett

General Officer Commanding-in-Chief Northern Command

• Nov 1920 – Nov 1924 General Sir William Birdwood
• Nov 1924 – May 1926 General Sir Claud Jacob
• May 1926 – May 1930 General Sir Alexander Cobbe
• May 1930 – May 1934 General Sir Robert Cassels
• May 1934 – May 1936 General Sir Kenneth Wigram
• May 1936 – Jun 1940 General Sir John Coleridge
• Jun 1940 – Jan 1942 General Sir Alan Hartley
• Jan 1942 – Apr 1942 General Sir Cyril Noyes

General Officer Commanding-in-Chief North Western Army

• Apr 1942 – May 1943 General Sir Cyril Noyes
• May 1943 – Aug 1943 General Sir Edward Quinan
• Aug 1943 – May 1945 General Sir Henry Finnis
• Jun 1945 – Oct 1945 Major-General Cecil Toovey
• Oct 1945 – Nov 1945 General Sir Richard O’Connor

General Officer Commanding-in-Chief Northern Command

• Nov 1945 – Oct 1946 General Sir Richard O’Connor
• Oct 1946 – Aug 1947 Lieutenant-General Sir Frank Messervy

Re-raising

The government of India decided to raise a separate command to oversee operations in the northern borders with Pakistan and China. Lt Gen Premindra Singh Bhagat, VC was appointed as the first Army Commander in June 1972. Bhagat’s main activities as Army Commander were the improvement of defences and the living and working condition of his troops.

^[8]Headquarters for the command was established at Udhampur, J&K.^[9]

The XIV Corps (Leh), XV Corps (Srinagar) and XVI Corps (Nagrota) control the operational units in Northern Command.

71 Independent Sub Area is part of the Command. III Corps and its 57th Mountain Division were shifted into the command as a reserve for Operation Parakram in 2001-2002.^[9]

Hyderabad (Telangana) [India]: Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao on Saturday reiterated that his government is committed to the welfare of the retired army personnel and added that his government has taken several measures for the welfare of the military personnel and some more are in the offing.

The Chief Minister held a high-level review meeting on the welfare of the retired military personnel at Pragathi Bhavan here.

During the meeting the Chief Minister decided to implement double pension scheme for the retired military personnel.

The double pension benefit will also be given to the spouse incase of death of the army pensioner. This pension will also be paid along with pensions of other employees every month.

He has also decided to extend benefits given to the army personnel martyred while serving to those lost their lives due to ill health and accidents too.

He has instructed the officials not to show any discrimination in this regard and said that retired army personnel working as Special Police Officers will be paid salaries along with other employees every month.

Rao said there is a need to strengthen the Army Welfare Boards. There are only 10 Sainik Welfare Boards in the districts, which will be extended to all the newly formed districts in the State.

He said steps will be taken to set up two Army Welfare Offices in Medak and Adilabad districts.

The compensation money given for those getting the gallantry awards would be more in the Telangana State compared to other states.

He also said that reservation should be given to the children of serving and retired army personnel in the Government residential Schools.

“The State government should accord recognition to the schools run by the army. Students joining NCC, Scouts and Guides should be encouraged and those pursing courses in National Defence Academy from the State should be given fellowships,” Rao said.

Since the Centre has agreed to set up an Army School in Warangal, Rao said, a Memorandum of Understadning in this regard will be signed as early as possible.

He also waived off vehicle tax for the the army personnel and will be exempted from paying tax in the state.

Meanwhile, the retired army personnel representatives have thanked the Chief Minister for enhancing the pension of war widows, giving two per cent reservation while allotting the two bed room houses, thereby exempting the military personnel from paying tax on their property.

Ministers Naini Narasimha Reddy, State Government’s Principal Advisor Rajeev Sharma, MPs Capt. Laxmikanth Rao, Vinod Kumar, Principal Secretaries Rajiv Trivedi and S Narsing Rao, Home Secretary Ms Anitha Rajendra, Southern India Army Commandant General Maj Gen S Pachauri, Secunderabad Station Brigadier Ajay Singh Negi, Colonel Tarun Kumar, Colonel Atul Rajput, Lieutenant General Jaswinder Singh, Captain Navneeth Singh, Army Welfare Committee Members Sri Suresh Reddy, Jagan Reddy, Pochaiah, Prabhakar Reddy, Manohar Reddy and others participated in the meeting.

Security personnel keep vigil during Army Chief Dalbir Singh Suhag’s visit to the Army camp in Nagrota on Wednesday. Tribune Photo: Inderjeet Singh

Dinesh Manhotra

Tribune News Service

Jammu, November 30

Tuesday’s terror attack at Nagrota, which claimed lives of seven Army men, including two Majors, has once again brought back memories of devastating terror attack of May 14, 2002, at the cantonment town of Kaluchak on the Jammu-Pathankot national highway. The worst-ever terror strike in J&K had left over 35 soldiers, their wives and children dead.Fourteen years after the incident, terrorists managed to reach near the family quarters at Nagrota. Their aim was to repeat another Kaluchak by targeting family members of the soldiers but they could not.Fortunately, it was bravery and presence of mind of the wives of two Army officers that terrorists’ nefarious design to repeat Kaluchak at Nagrota was frustrated.“The brutality of terrorists, which we witnessed on May 14, 2002, was revived after Tuesday’s incident at Nagrota,” said Ravinder Singh, who runs a shop near Kaluchak.Even after passing of 14 years, signs of terror’s cruelty have still not been erased from the block of family quarters which the terrorists had managed to enter after storming the Army formation. “The block, which witnessed bloodshed and destruction 14 years back, still wears a deserted look,” Brij Nath, a local of Kaluchak said while recounting how three terrorists, who were dressed in Army uniforms, had lobbed grenades and fired on the soldiers, their family members, including small kids.Sources in the intelligence agencies said the initial investigation had established that the terrorists, who attacked the Army formation at Nagrota, had conducted a thorough recce before executing their plan. “It appears that terrorists were well aware about the location of the family quarters which was their target,” the sources said.As reported earlier, soon after the terrorists entered the Army unit located at Nagrota they were desperate to enter the family quarters where they could take the families of the soldiers and officers hostage.However, due to the bravery of two women, who were staying in the family quarters along with their newborns, the nefarious designs of the terrorists were frustrated.The wives of the two Army officers displayed exemplary courage as they blocked the entry of their quarters with all household items, making it difficult for the terrorists to break into the houses.

Fidayeen aimed for families

• The terror strike in Nagrota brought back memories of devastating terror attack of May 14, 2002, at the cantonment town of Kaluchak on the Jammu-Pathankot national highway which left over 35 soldiers, their wives and children dead.
• On Tuesday, the three fidayeen terrorists managed to reach near the family quarters at Nagrota and their aim was to repeat another Kaluchak by targeting family members of the soldiers.
• Fortunately, the presence of mind of the wives of two Army officers nixed the nefarious designs of the terrorists.

After India’s surgical strikes on terror cells across the border in September, militants attacked the Nagrota Army base in November, raising disturbing questions on the ability of security agencies to second guess terror. Perhaps it is time New Delhi took a closer look at new age tools developed by researchers to fight terro.

Security agencies across the world employ more than 40 math models to stay a step ahead of terrorists. Jonathan Farley, professor at the University of the West Indies, uses the lattice theory — a branch of mathematics that deals with ordered sets — to ascertain the probability of how many members need to be ‘taken out’ before a terrorist cell can be disrupted. This, in turn, helps to determine the structure of an ‘ideal’ terrorist cell which is most resistant to the loss of its members. Mathematicians Stephen Trench and Hannah Fry of the University College, London base their model on the Hawkes process (used in earthquake prediction programmes): It assumes that terror strikes occur in clusters and an attack is likely to be followed soon after by others — like after-shocks following an earthquake.

Neil Johnson of Miami University and his team mix maths and social media to predict terrorist attacks. Their algorithm detects signs of imminent terror strikes by monitoring social media posts used by radical groups. Prof. Johnson says social media serves as a recruitment platform for extremists and even seemingly innocuous online conversations on extremist topics could portend violent terrorist acts.

By studying pro-ISIS posts , for instance, he found strong linkages between terrorist-inspired posts and the likelihood of terror attacks happening. In fact, he says, it’s possible to see people “materialising” around certain social groups to share information in real-time, just like “crystals form in a test-tube”. This technology could help security agencies track sympathisers who get together at random before becoming terrorists themselves. Thus online ‘lone wolf’ actors act on their own only for short periods of time. After a while, a “coalescence process” begins in the online activity of such individuals and they become identifiable with different groups, or “aggregates”. Prof. Johnson calls this the “ecology of aggregates,” which allows his algorithm to track the trajectories of individuals through it.

But of especial interest to India would be the Temporal-Probabilistic Rule System developed by Venkatramana Subrahmanian, University of Maryland, which not only predicts terror attacks but also suggests counter strategies. The programme is based on the Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents (SOMA) and the multiplayer game theory models. Both are built on data reflecting hundreds of variables relevant to terror groups in South Asia like the LeT, JeM, and SIMI.

SOMA identifies environment conditions favourable for the group’s actions and predicts the probability ‘P’ that it will carry out action ‘A’ with intensity ‘I’, when some condition is true in the environment. The multiplayer game theory correlates sets of actions that each player can perform and assigns a “payoff” for each combination of actions that a group can take.

This yields something called a ‘payoff matrix,’ showing all possible combinations of actions, and the payoffs for each scenario. In the LeT game theory, these actions include covert action or coercive diplomacy that policy makers could use. So in a hypothetical situation with five players (LeT, Pak military, Pak civilian government, US, and India), for each combination of actions these players could take, the model evaluates how good or bad that scenario could be for them.

Prof. Subrahmanian’s programme derives from Nash equilibria and calculates both ‘pure’ equilibria— where each player may or may not take an action, and ‘mixed’ equilibria—where each player can take probabilistic combinations of action. We found that of all the Nash equilibria in which LeT behaves well (i.e., does not carry out attacks),” says Prof. Subrahmanian, “the US and India both use covert action against LeT and/or coercive diplomacy with respect to Pakistan, and there is no additional military/development aid to Pakistan.”

During World War II, the United States Navy neutralised Germany’s U-boat threat by asking chess grandmaster Reuben Fine to analyse the probability of U-boats surfacing at certain points in the sea.

And Britain recruited several chess masters to devise a mathematical model to crack the German Enigma code, which virtually won the war for the Allies.

More than six decades later, the free world is again turning to mathematical models and the science of probability to help fight a new enemy: Terrorism.