(Maj Gen Harvijay Singh, SM)

Avdiivka, was a Strong Point preventing Russian forces using Donetsk as a communications hub and preventing a breakout on this axis. The capture of Avdiivka, following months of fighting with heavy casualties on both sides, is a significant gain for Russia – 208 Sq KMs of area captured and a Bridge Head available to expand the offensive. After taking Avdiivka, units of the Centre group of Russian forces have continued advancing in a westerly direction – Russian Defence Ministry statement. Urban Terrain provides many advantages to a weaker force to occupy. Concealment and cover is in abundance. Most buildings are de facto military-grade defensive structures. The defender can manoeuvre easily through known streets and alleys. The maze of buildings also reduces the effect of modern Information, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) systems so vital for an attacker. In Syria, fighters hung plastic sheets between rooftops to blind expensive satellites. In contrast, the biggest disadvantage for the attacking force is that it can be seen and engaged by the defenders at will. The human cost however remains high. Tactics Used by the Russians • Infantry Led Combined Arms Offensives, Motorised Infantry Brigades to the Fore: o Supported by artillery (massed), drones, and intense aerial bombardment (including Attack Heptrs) using guided aerial bombs. o Pincer movement (Double Envelopment) on Avdiivka, not very successful due to industrial complexes on northern axis which gave an advantage to the defender. o Russians switched tactics from trying to outflank Avdiivka with fast-paced, exposed armoured assaults to infiltrating infantry to isolate (into smaller pockets) and capture Ukrainian positions piecemeal. o Extensive use of Infantry Combat Vehicles in streets and the industrial zone. o Infantry attacked in waves preceded by heavy artillery and aerial bombardment to exhaust the defence lines. A Ukrainian drone operator reports that Russians advanced at night in groups of five to seven and then attacked at sunrise. • Tunnel Warfare – Innovations more than often not win battles, a feisty innovation it was. o An irregular Russian formation named Dikiya Divisiya (roughly translates as The Wild Division, this group is partially staffed with former Wagner Group personnel) dug a 160-meter-long tunnel underneath a Ukrainian position and detonated explosives, tunnel bomb! o Russian tunnelers entered Avdiivka’s underground drainage network and began digging and clearing debris in abandoned sewage tunnels for several days; in harsh winters, a most unexpected approach? o Raiding parties then used the passage to infiltrate and conduct sneak attacks on Ukrainian positions; gain vital footholds to isolate Ukrainian positions. Russians kept an influx of fresh recruits (including Storm Z Penal units – Convicts) to exert non-stop pressure on exhausted Ukrainian units, draining their resources and forcing them to retreat…… 110th Mechanized Brigade was defending Avdiivka since Mar 2022 and was exhausted. There was a chronic shortage of artillery shells because of delays in EU and US military aid packages. Foggy weather also helped the Russians. Conclusion: Russian forces have regained strategic initiative. Foreign aid for Ukraine in this ‘Election Year’ will be a challenge, politicians, let just say are simply too busy calling each other names – Biden called Putin a SOB…… was the term ‘destitute of all decency’ not reserved for Trump? On a serious note – Has Ukraine crossed an irreversible threshold?