(Maj Gen Harvijay Singh, SM)

The War in Ukraine – Frozen in Time.

When the war began in Feb 2022, Ukraine was the underdog. Even ally NATO anticipated an early knockout. Still standing on its feet after 10 Months is itself, in a sense victory for Ukraine……….Realistically, however, is this winning really winning? With the ground offensives reduced to a tired slugfest, are they now simply wasting lives?

The scenery in and around towns like Bakhmut is no different to the trench warfare of France in World War I, a century ago. Russians are avoiding close combat and using massed artillery to bleed Ukraine.

“We want to shoot the enemy, but we don’t see him. An infantryman has nothing to do in an artillery war other than dig—and run.” – A Ukrainian Soldier.

The western world, honestly speaking hasn’t done anything exemplary to boost Ukraine’s military capability; their empty pretentiousness raises a question: How far is Ukraine from becoming a NATO member?

Answer: Nowhere near. As also for its 2014 Maidan uprising dream of becoming part of European Union (EU).

But why?

Answer: NATO and EU is divided:

• Germany, in particular, regards Ukrainian membership of NATO dangerous in light of Russian opposition. Others fear that it would escalate the conflict with Russia, and, Europe would have to face the brunt, NATO may then run the risk of imploding.
• Hungary, is upset with Ukraine about its oppressive policy towards Hungarian minority. EU politicians feel Hungary is blackmailing EU due to its dependence on Russian gas.
• Any new member has to convince and lobby all 30 NATO members that it is worthy of joining the club……… all 30 unanimous. A Hungary “no” vote has the power to cancel the “yes” vote of 29; no half measures or exceptions.

Despite the courageous, resolute and dauntless voices, Ukraine’s National Power, the trinity of: Military, Economics, and Population is on the wane.

• Military: Ukraine’s military hardware is mostly borrowed. They do not have soldiers to spare for training on them to make any difference. Additionally, volunteers who have joined the war do not have formal military training. Nationalism notwithstanding, most are of not much use on the battlefield which requires years of rigorous training; these brave lads are just cannon fodder in the ongoing conflict as are Russian conscripts.
• Economically, Ukraine is just surviving. Black Sea blockade of Ukraine’s ports—Mariupol, Odesa, Kherson, and others—by Russia’s navy is preventing import of fuels and the export of grains. Ukraine loses $170 million every day it is cut off from access to the sea and the national export capacity had been more than halved. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. 
• Population: There are over six million refugees, mostly women and children. All may not want to come back to the poorest nation of Europe now further devastated by war; most will be waiting for their husbands and fathers to join them. The European hosts themselves experiencing an economic slowdown may not be too keen to keep them for too long.

Honestly speaking, Ukraine is already seriously and dangerously weakened. Notably, amongst Russia, NATO and Ukraine, all the damage is happening only on the towns and villages of Ukraine.

The western world besides being cheer leaders, now need to broker a PEACE and help Ukraine HEAL.