ON TEST: Which political philosophy will capture the popular imagination?

BY all surveys, anecdotal accounts and electoral results, PM Modi currently leads the popularity stakes, even as he nears the third anniversary of the 16th Lok Sabha. The recent state Assembly results, including the billing to the proverbial ‘semi-final’ to the general election in 2019, in the state of UP, has seen the incumbent Central government tide over the impact of demonetisation. Former CM of J&K, Omar Abdullah, went as far as to tweet, ‘In a nutshell, there is no leader today with a pan-India acceptability who can take on Modi & the BJP in 2019’. But, behind the ostensible success rate of anointing governments in four out of the five states that went to elections, lurks some pointers that posit an alternative enquiry — Is the approval rating for the ruling dispensation infallible or unsurmountable? Not necessarily. Besides the statistical reality of the Congress overcoming the incumbency factor by still retaining most number of seats in Manipur (after 15 years of continuous rule), snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in Goa with more lawmakers than the ultimately successful BJP in Panaji, and romping home in Punjab — the undisputable ‘tsunami’ in UP has to be contextualised with the flicker of contrarian statistics in three other states. True, the ‘Captain’s knock’ and the ‘Openers’ sheet-anchor role in Punjab offered credible faces in popular imagination, unlike in UP, where the Congress displayed a night watchman’s batting inelegance in offering a credible alternative. Ultimately, winning 419 out of the 690 seats at the electoral sweepstakes was the most decisive indicator of the prevailing Modi-BJP wave, three-fifth into their tenure. Gallup poll indicates that it typically takes over two years in the US to reach ‘majority disapproval’ — it took Bill Clinton 573 days, Ronald Reagan 727 days, Barack Obama 936 days, and surprisingly, George W Bush 1,205 days (presumably on account of his ‘fight back’ against terror, post 9/11). Incidentally, Donald Trump smashed the record by reaching ‘majority disapproval’ within eight days of assuming presidency! Constituents give the governments the initial benefit of the doubt and the more strident and ‘nationalistic’ the fervour (think George W Bush’s uber-Texan drawl invoking, ‘you are either with us or against us’), the more long-lasting the honeymoon. The second half of the governmental tenure normally sees a more nuanced assessment, factual debate and the onset of dispassionate conversations that are bereft of the initial hype. Hard numbers validating economic prudence and the upswing in most social indicators explained the emotional call for a ‘third term’ for both Clinton and Obama (despite the ‘disruptive’ narrative of personal misdemeanour in the case of the former, and the perennial angularity of minority race, for the latter). Invariably, the last leg gets more real and stripped of the seductive jingoism — George W Bush ultimately slid away from public memory as the hard reality and implications of his muscular approach sunk in.India, in 2019, will similarly do a more rigorous assessment of the various political alternatives for the next five years. The ability to window-dress figures and repeat fantastic promises are usually at their lowest towards the end of tenures — undeniably, other factors like individual personality ‘brands’ and perception of national leadership impact the voting preferences, yet the political agenda and philosophy of any ruling party gets thoroughly re-tested after a patient time frame of five years and a hard evaluation of delivery against promises. It is here, a clear governance test between UP and Punjab could emerge as an important lodestar for the national narrative. Both states have the scale and profile to postulate the two divergent and principal political alternatives (individually, or even collectively as UPA or NDA). Both have won a clear political mandate to posture as the ‘political pilots’ for the rest of the country — neither of the states is constrained with any coalition issues. From a raja to a yogi, the personality contest is also as colourful as it gets — in Punjab, the victor was ‘to the manor born’, but earned his literal stripes as ‘Captain’, whereas in UP , the ‘outsider’ was born a commoner, but earned his right to political divinity as ‘yogi’. Beyond these cheeky monikers, the acid test of displayed governance would have earned its two years of invaluable and uncontestable report card that ought to be the critical deciding factor between the two principal political alternatives, more than the initial flashy moves which are designed to please the core cadres. Both states are in dire straits of economic and social deprivation — if it is about the drugs menace in one, it is about social disintegration in the other. Opening moves from both state leaders was expectedly cavalier, yet the long road to 2019 will be peppered with the litmus test of managing the ‘palace intrigues’ in both Lucknow and Chandigarh, where a lot of enemies would be within their own ranks, as indeed from outside to disrupt  the ‘political pilots’. Leaders in both states are decisive and firm, and not necessarily known to kowtow to the ‘high commands’, but herein, could emerge the true test of political philosophies and their ultimate deliverables in a diverse country like India with its myriad socio-economic challenges.Interim state elections in 2018 (Gujarat, Nagaland, Karnataka,  Meghalaya, Tripura and Himachal) would be reflective of the topical sentiment then. However, the time assigned to these new state governments would be too short to make cases for political preferences in the 17th Lok Sabha elections in 2019. Political eyes are already fixated on UP and Punjab, as a truly vibrant and prosperous Punjab or the peaceful and progressive UP, as promised by the respective state leaders, would go longer than any chest-thumping, sloganeering and bravado that is typically deployed before and after each state win or defeat by all parties. The land of the five rivers, and the fertile Gangetic plains will narrate their own unaided and true narratives of political deliverables emanating from two opposite political philosophies that could hold the key to capture national imagination and decide the political choices for 2019.The writer is a former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands & Puducherry