There have been times in history when a single event has triggered a chain such that it led to catastrophic results for the international security situation, something which could not have been ordinarily visualised at the time of occurrence. No better example than that of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian throne, and his wife on 28 Jun 1914 in Sarajevo. It led to the First World War which paralysed much of the world for four years and resulted in approximately 15 to 19 million deaths of civilian and military personnel. This is not to say that the murder of Jamal Ahmad Kashoggi at the consulate of Saudi Arabia in Istanbul on 2 Oct 2018 is a parallel to an event such as that which triggered the First World War, nor is it implied that in 2018 the world is heading anywhere near a world war. Yet seldom in recent history has an event unrelated to global politics had an impact which can drastically change the strategic environment of a crucial region of the world, as the Kashoggi killing. The gruesome murder and dismemberment of the body of the veteran US based Saudi journalist just a few weeks ago, at the Saudi consulate purportedly on the orders of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS), is by now too well known to recount here. It has, however, set off a chain of unpredictability which has all portends of a transformative change in international politics the effects of which are yet in drift. It could create immense challenges for the Trump Administration to pursue its policy in the Middle East, a region which it was hoping to stabilize and move on from, towards greater challenges that await it in the Indo Pacific and elsewhere.

          At the core of the issue is the US attempt to create an order in the Middle East which could suitably empower a reasonably reformed Saudi Arabia under its heir apparent,  MbS to counter the perceived growing power of an allegedly rogue Iran. Iran’s dominance of the Levant achieved largely with the help of Russia, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and the Bashar Assad regime of Syria has already altered the balance of power in the Middle East. The proverbial Shia crescent extending into this sub region militates against the interests of Israel the staunchest US ally. Equally it directly impinges on Saudi interests especially its status in the sectarian conflict between Shia and Sunni Islam in which Saudi Arabia is at the core centre of Sunni interests. After a short period of reticence displayed by former President Obama the US had returned to resuming its special economic and military relationship with the Saudis. Under President Trump this received a further impetus with all stakes placed in the leadership of MbS, the young and bold Crown Prince who displayed all the signs of loosening Saudi ideological and political make up in order to prepare it for a greater strategic role  in a future devoid of energy as its mainstay. With Trump’s known stance against Iran and avowed efforts at bringing regime change in that country he set up the mechanism for a greater US-Israeli-Saudi strategic equation to offset Russian and Iranian gains from the Syrian Civil War. Trump’s son in law Jared Kushner became the US points man and his special relationship with MbS and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was the cornerstone of the US policy pursuance to regain the power balance.

With the hand of MbS now reasonably suspect in ordering the killing of Jamal Kashoggi, equations appear getting upset. It all commenced with MbS displaying what analysts suspected were his true colours which are far from the professed reputation of being an ardent reformist and a relative liberal in the maze of Middle Eastern authoritarianism. It’s not as if the US has not supported non democratic forces in the past but its investment in MbS and creation of a new Saudi Arabia was huge. So how does a single murder of a journalist upset the US applecart?

As an ardent supporter of rights and stability the US has always attempted to project the need for a rule based order. Haaretz, the mainstream Israeli newspaper has this to say about the whole affair – “ The Kashoggi murder, beyond obliterating red  lines of immorality, also points to the fundamental unreliability of Saudi Arabia under MbS as a strategic partner”. The focus immediately comes on the almost single point investment of US policy in MbS to play the right cards in the messy game of Middle Eastern politics. Yet even the US, despite many instances of a murky past, cannot easily morally justify its position by continuing with this partnership. Other instances of MbS’ alleged reckless and impulsive attitude come into focus and lend to potential US embarrassment; the fruitless war in Yemen which has created vast suffering of civilians; or even the Qatar blockade which has diverted attention from the strategy of containing Iran; and the severing of relations with Canada over a tweet criticizing Saudi detentions of human rights activists.

President Trump has vainly held on and desisted from direct condemnation of the Prince which would strain relations. He has personal business stakes in Saudi Arabia it is said. However, more importantly it is US business interests which are also at stake. The agreement to sell 110 billion USD worth of weapons was a big achievement being projected by Trump. This could well be under threat with a new political equation in the US legislature now in place; even without that there are Republican Senators who have been the harshest critics of the murky affair.  In fact justification of holding MbS hand for the sake of pursuing strategic interests would become a contentious affair against collective American conscience. A continuation of the relationship with MbS could hurt Trump electorally as there is greater progress in the investigation. The CIA itself appears to be sufficiently convinced to take a public position on the issue sparking what could be one more internal squabble in the US to the detriment of the Administration.

If the US attempts to force King Salman the Saudi monarch to alter the planned succession it would firstly undo a crucial two years of strategic investment and weaken the US  hold over the Middle East. It cannot be overlooked that MbS may not go quietly. By now he has embedded himself powerfully and cultivated the required loyalties. It would cause turbulence in one of the most stable states in the Middle East which holds the key to many other strategic links in the region. The weakening of the US-Israeli-Saudi equation is to Iran’s interest and advantage but it would bring in greater unpredictability in Israel’s stance leading to even greater instability. The ‘Deal of the Century’ that Trump is contemplating about the Israel-Palestine issue would be a non-starter in such a case.

The killing of Kashoggi is unlikely to peter off into a forgotten affair; the ‘Murder on the Bosporus’ has yet to see the emergence of many other hidden linkages which could upset even more equations. It is the rule based and ethical order that the US promotes which would most of all return to pressure President Trump into stronger decisions in the near future. Each such decision would obviously have its own spin off sparking an era of greater uncertainty in the Middle East.