The elections in Pakistan have drawn tremendous interest in India, with almost 24×7 coverage by television channels although, ironically, no Indian journalist received a visa to cover the event from within Pakistan. Many Pakistani journalists were harnessed to do some justice to the news flow to India. At the outset, it was clear and is increasingly becoming even more transparent that the election was well orchestrated by the Pakistan army. It ensured a near-absolute victory of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, such that a few smaller parties would need to join in to form a government that is sufficiently weak to be under the army’s control, without making it look anything illegal. That army, reputed to own a nation, is now into its third experiment having earlier dealt with the restiveness of Nawaz Sharif and the PPP leadership. Imran and his PTI will remain effectively under control until he too starts to grow wings. It’s from this assumption that any analysis of the future of Indo-Pak relations must flow. But before that, the election game may not yet be over. The PML-N, PPP and even Fazlur Rehman’s Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) are up in arms about the perceived blatant rigging and Punjab is where it has probably been rampant; that’s the PML-N territory. It may just not be the take it or leave it kind of result that the Army may have expected because voices are being raised even as we have heard not a sound from the international observers from the Commonwealth. So even as the army bullies its way to government formation, the curtains on the internal dynamics itself may not drop for some time. Pakistani civil society may be weak but PML-N street power in Punjab could be something to reckon with especially with its leader in jail.
Imran is familiar with India, has many friends from his earlier avatar and is considered an educated, erudite, sophisticated Pakistani celebratory with a ready and welcome presence at talk shows. However, in political terms that means nothing because he has changed personality as the chameleon to suit the political ambition he has been led into. He has been mouthing support for anti-blasphemy laws and generally playing to the galleries as expected with the electoral rhetoric and the political climate of the street. One would be unrealistic to expect from him anything different, at least in his first few years. The Pakistani realpolitik is army-driven to ensure that the army always remains the power behind the throne. To do that, the relationship with India must remain sufficiently on tenterhooks without crossing a given rubicon.
No one can fault Imran Khan for his initial statements which may generally be in the right direction but it’s also true that no designated head of government ever commences his tenure with threats of war or coercion; these are sweet nothings which people expect to hear.
He has stated his intention of taking two steps for every step that India takes towards durable peace. He would do well to remember that in 2014-15, PM Narendra Modi had taken more than two steps without a single one in response from Pakistan because the Pakistan army could not absorb a peace initiative. Having tracked Imran’s record of utterances in the recent past, people in India expect that with his purported change in thinking he would only play to the Pakistan army’s interests which essentially means no change in Pakistan’s policy towards India. For him to identify Kashmir as the core issue and mention human rights violations in the same breath reflect no change in thinking. If a real difference has to be made in the context of India-Pakistan relations, then early enough he must indicate what sort of action he intends to take against those radical elements long considered Pakistan’s strategic assets against India. Given his inclination towards supporting many of these radical elements, can he be expected to do anything transformational towards addressing India’s concern on terror? That is hardly likely, at least definitely not in the near future as India prepares to get to the starting blocks of its own elections. Any such attempt will be perceived negatively within Pakistan and will remain against the Pakistan army’s carefully crafted strategy. It will, however, also add to Modi’s popularity in India – something that Pakistan would consider completely counter to its interests.
The only silver lining on which many in India may continue to place their bets is the greylisting of Pakistan by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) a few weeks prior to the election, an event which got partially subsumed in the fervour of the election. Pakistan’s economy is in the dumps and the likelihood of Islamabad having to seek a bailout by the IMF does place it on the back foot. However, the international community has historically shown a propensity towards coercing Pakistan on terror and other related activities only up to a point and never beyond. Strategically, Pakistan continues to enjoy the status of a bridge nation, between China and the West, and between the sectarian divide within the Middle East. It also provides the proverbial path to a resolution on anything to do with Afghanistan. It has overcome strictures such as FATF greylisting in the past too and may therefore not entirely be inclined towards doing anything more than simply lobbying with the international community this time as well. That is a field it is adept at and Imran Khan’s suave presence may well help it even more.
India will have to wait and watch. If, however, against all assessment Imran Khan does turn out to be a Pakistani leader who can be his own man then nothing should keep us from backing him to attempt a long- required change in India-Pakistan relationship. The ball is in his hand and he must bowl it straight and not with the reverse swing for which he is famous.
The author commanded the 15 Corps in Jammu and Kashmir. Views expressed are personal.