Given Pakistan’s dependence on China, the Sino-Indian rapprochement impacts its thinking. Gen Bajwa’s overtures for better relations with India point towards a change of attitude. Delhi must reciprocate.

MK Bhadrakumar

A former ambassador

The three summit meetings that Prime Minister Narendra Modi took part during the past 10 weeks — at Wuhan with Chinese President Xi Jinping; at Sochi with Russian President Vladimir Putin; and, at the Qingdao summit of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation — are presaging a phenomenal change for the better in India’s external environment. The new foreign policy narrative focuses on India’s strategic autonomy, regionalism and its rejection of the US-led containment strategies against Russia and China. The leitmotif is a Sino-Indian rapprochement and a makeover of the time-tested India-Russian strategic partnership to inject more vitality in the contemporary world situation. India is positioning itself on the right side of history at a transformative period in the world order when multi-polarity is strengthening. The big question is: what is there in this narrative for India’s relations with its two key South Asian neighbours Nepal and Pakistan, where Indian and Chinese strategies have historically intersected? Most certainly, an improvement in the India-China relations reduces the scope for any country to play India and China each other. Having said that, as a rising world power, China has wide-ranging interests and concerns in the South Asian region and can be expected to be active in the region. But it is a fallacy to regard the Chinese regional policies as “India-centric” or to feel paranoid about them. In fact, we get a splendid view next week as to how far the “Wuhan spirit” is permeating China’s policies in South Asia. Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli begins a five-day official visit to China on June 19. The Chinese foreign ministry announcement described the two countries as “comprehensive cooperative partners with ever-lasting friendship” and said the two countries “support each other on issues concerning each other’s core interests.” Clearly, Nepal’s cooperation to plug the infiltration routes of Tibetan militants is top priority for China. But the thrust of Oli’s visit appears to be on the “practical cooperation” under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing says that Nepal’s “political transformation” provides “important opportunities” for the development of bilateral relations. The Chinese Foreign Minister and State Councilor Wang Yi recently revisited the idea that “supporting the development of Nepal should become the consensus of China and India.” But New Delhi has kept a studious silence. Isn’t it time for a rethink on the Chinese proposal for India-Nepal-China Economic Trilateral Cooperation (INCETC)? A fresh look will be consistent with PM’s call recently at the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore for a “free, open, prosperous and inclusive” Indo-Pacific. Surely, what is good for the Indo-Pacific must be good for South Asia too?  India’s interests lie in creating synergy between the development agenda of Nepal and of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Perhaps, as is being done in the reset with China and Russia, Modi should bring in Dr Rajiv Kumar at the Niti Aayog into the India-Nepal-China equation under the rubric of INCETC. If we need electricity and if Nepal makes money by selling electricity to Bihar or UP, does it really matter that the electricity flows from power turbines made in China? Clearly, having signaled to Beijing a change in our approach to Tibet-related issues, China’s attitude to us in Nepal is also likely changing. The challenge is to be aware of it and tap into it. Similarly, Sino-Indian rapprochement could have positive fallouts on India’s troubled relationship with Pakistan as well. As a matter of fact, the remarks about India-Pakistan relations made by Foreign Minister Wang in the weekend following the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao must be studied closely.  Wang told the media: “We know there are existing and historical, unresolved issues and conflicts between Pakistan and India. But I think after their joining of the SCO, maybe we can say that their relationship might be better as the grouping provides a better platform and opportunities for building the relations between them. Because, when joining the SCO, a series of agreements had to be signed and pledges had to be made. One of the key pillars (of joining the SCO) is to keep good and friendly relations and they should not see each other as opponents, much less enemies. Because they have signed these agreements, they shoulder a responsibility for implementing them. I feel that the SCO serves as a great vehicle for bettering the two nations’ relations. As a result, it will better safeguard the peace and stability of the region. We see although their relations have seen their ups and downs, if we look at the bigger picture, they are progressing nevertheless.”Of course, it is unthinkable that India will ever seek third party mediation to settle its differences with Pakistan. But beneath that threshold, what Wang’s carefully worded remarks underscore is that China is willing to promote India-Pakistan normalisation. Maybe, China is already playing a role, given its manifest keenness to expand and deepen its cooperation with India bilaterally and regionally where India-Pakistan tensions pose a serious contradiction. The Chinese Communist Party daily Global Times commented on Monday that the SCO provides “multilateral guarantee” for India’s connectivity with Central Asia via Pakistan and promotes cooperation on regional security. Such comments are also to be seen in the backdrop of the mellowing of the Indian opposition to the BRI. Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale and his Chinese counterpart ensured that SCO’s support for the BRI didn’t become a sticking point in the Qingdao Declaration (which Modi signed.) A paradigm shift is under way and our analysts have catching up to do.  Meanwhile, given Pakistan’s heavy dependence on China, the Sino-Indian rapprochement profoundly impacts the thinking in Islamabad. Pakistani army chief Gen Qamar Bajwa’s recent overtures for better relations with India point towards a change of attitude. Delhi must reciprocate. The matrix that is shaping up is unprecedented. Timing is everything and therefore, the opportunity to normalise India-Pakistan relations must be explored. Modi broke the ice at Qingdao and exchanged pleasantries with Pakistan President Mamnoon Hussain on the sidelines of the SCO summit. The SCO military exercise in the Urals in Russia in August provides a historic occasion. Hopefully, Indian and Pakistani four-star generals will share a podium and even have a meaningful conversation. The Russian host will be only too happy to be a facilitator. The bottom line is that neither China nor Pakistan is seeking a conflagration over Kashmir.