Meanwhile President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive. “But this is not like a feature
movie, where everything happens in an hour and a half.” Seasons have changed, and it is no longer summer, all that
the offensive has achieved is to advance just 7.5 KMs reaching the tiny village of Robotyne. Does this reflect a
substantial density of Russian fortifications and mines in the 1500 KMs front or the lack of resources with Ukraine?
The West would like to blame it on inexperienced troops (after two years of war?), new tactics (Mechanised warfare),
Russian fortifications ……. in that order.
However, during this period, Russia has been able to capture two strategic cities of Bakhmut and now Avdiivka. At the
heart of Avdiivka city is the once-thriving Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, once one of the largest producers of
coke, a coal-based fuel, in Europe.
“We are taking measures to stabilise the situation and maintain our positions. The life of military personnel is of the
highest value.” Newly appointed Ukrainian military Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi after the loss.
Brave words by a Military Commander to cover up for political snafus……a worldwide phenomenon! The truth is a
that a lack of military supplies from Western Patrons has a direct impact on the loss of Avdiivka. The Ukraine Army is
rationing its Artillery due to acute shortage of ammunition – OMG, Ukraine has been dumped!!!
2024 is the ‘Global Elections Carnival’ – More voters than ever will vote in at least 64 countries (plus the EU).
Hopefully the intelligent populations are fed up with these ‘wars by proxy’ happening around the world and they are
now prepared to punish their smug political leadership.
Avdiivka is a key to Russia’s aim of securing full control of the two Donbas provinces – Donetsk and Luhansk. Avdiivka
was protecting several key Ukrainian military positions farther west and putting the nearby Russian-controlled city of
Donetsk under constant threat. Seizing Avdiivka could boost Russian morale and demoralise Ukrainian forces further.
A few days ago, US Defence Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, told the defence ministers meeting in Brussels that the
United States would maintain its support for Ukraine, making no mention of a multibillion-dollar aid package
awaiting congressional approval.
The $95 billion emergency aid package remains blocked in Congress since its introduction in Oct 23. After the
Senate has passed the package, which included aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan with bipartisan support. It has
moved closer to a final vote, …… which could still be days away. Ukraine and the other proxies will have to wait –
consensus is likely to remain fractured with American elections around the corner.
Conventional wisdom is that wars end in negotiations – however they often end or freeze at the ballot box, e.g
America’s war in Vietnam, the French in Algeria, Slobodan Milosevic’s defeat in Yugoslavia – outcomes of the 2024
elections will shape the next international order and perhaps many communities across the world will be freed from
travails of violence ……….. we can only hope.
For Joe Biden and his European allies to win elections, Ukraine needs some wins on the battlefield. The Republicans
know that well. As far as Vladimir Putin is concerned, it will take a lot of imagination to see him losing elections. And
Zelenski for obvious reasons is doing his best to avoid them – any ways, with most of the population exiled or
internally displaced elections in Ukraine will be a monumental logistical challenge.
Conclusively: Ukraine has every reason to fear that Democrats (in the US) may lose the presidency and support for
them (Ukraine) could soften. A new standard for 21st Century – to win wars, you also need to win elections, and not
just in your own country.