There is tremendous hype over the role of Drones, Ballistic and Cruise Missiles in W
There is tremendous hype over the role of Drones, Ballistic and Cruise Missiles in Warfare emerging from Battlefield
Ukraine, looking at the results there, rightly so. Maybe!!
On 13 Apr Iran launched more than 300 explosive drones and 10 ballistic missiles in Operation Va’de-ye Sadeq (True
Promise) – a significant attack by any account. Reported casualties and damage are however insignificant; the
difference (with Ukraine) – An Iron Clad Air Defence. Maybe !! Certainly yes.
99 Percent Iranian Drones, Missiles Intercepted: Israeli Military
Missiles and Drones Likely to Have Been Used by Iran:
• Drones: Shahed-136: Self-detonating Loitering Suicide Drones, Max Speed: 185 km/h, Guidance System: GNSS,
INS. Although slow, used in large numbers with a strategy to overwhelm the defence system. Shahed-107: A new
addition with similar capabilities.
• Missiles: Fateh-313 and Qiam missiles, short range ballistic missile. They were equipped with cluster warheads
which are difficult to intercept.
Israel’s Multilayered Air-Defence System: Long-Range Interception (The Arrow), Intermediate Interception (David’s
Sling and Patriot), Short-Range Interception (Iron Dome) and Very Short-Range Interception Systems.
• The Arrow: Outside the atmosphere hypersonic anti-ballistic missile. It can intercept ballistic missiles, including
ICBMs with nuclear, chemical, biological, or conventional warheads, during the space-flight portion of their
trajectory. Has a reported range of up to 2,400 km and can reach altitudes greater than 100 km.
• David’s Sling: Intercept a variety of aerial threats, including planes, drones, tactical ballistic missiles, medium- to
long-range rockets, and cruise missiles. Op Range: 40 to 300 km. Guidance System: AESA millimeter 3D radar
and dual electro-optical/imaging infrared (CCD/IIR) seeker for precise targeting. (designed to replace older
systems like the MIM-23 Hawk and MIM-104 Patriot).
• Patriot: now used to shoot down aircraft, including drones.
• Iron Dome: Intercept and destroy short-range rockets and artillery shells fired from distances of 4 to 70 km – a
remarkable success rate of intercepting over 90% of threats.
Lessons to Be Learnt
• Surprise: That these attacks were coming was known for days. Surprise remains the biggest winnable factor of
war. Same systems were not so effective during rocket attacks by Hamas on 7 Oct 2023.
• Size: Israel – a small compact country – 20,770 Sq kms. India with hostile neighbors (having ballistic missile and
drones’ capability) – 3,287,263 Sq km; threats will have to seriously wargammed for economy of effort.
• Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Kill: The distance of launch sites and heavy deployment of
American assets gave a fair warning and reasonable reaction time (a few mins, maybe lesser). India: not likely to
get this space, must develop a strong strategic deterrence to prevent even the thought of such an attack.
Strategic Deterrence:
• Requires credible military capability; demonstrating readiness (always) is as crucial.
• Targets the psychological, cognitive, and decision-making systems of enemy; fear of retaliation.
• Strategic Partners and International Collaboration makes the cost of an attack potentially higher due to the
involvement of multiple nations.
The Harsh Truth of Strategic Deterrence: Simply face painting does not scare an enemy.
By its actions, Iran defended its right to retaliate against Israel’s belligerence in attacking Iran’s embassy in Damascus.
Iran has said – It is over for now. Everyone would welcome that except Israel. The Million Dollar Ques therefore is;
Will Israel retaliate?
o I will say – Maybe NOT, except something against the proxies – in terms of conflict escalation that has
little significance