Sanjha Morcha

Provoking the Dragon Are there any fallback options?

China is like the proverbial cat on the hot tin roof as far as the Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh is concerned. China has accused India of obstinacy that has caused “serious damage” to bilateral ties after the Dalai Lama began visiting the “disputed” parts of Arunachal Pradesh. India’s outwardly resolute stand should gladden the cockles of nationalists, especially in light of the RSS top brass calling for an overhaul of India’s China policy because Beijing has not reciprocated India’s friendly overtures. In addition to maintaining that the Dalai Lama is a religious leader and enjoys freedom of movement in any part of the country, the nationalists argue, not without reason, that there was no adverse fallout when the Dalai Lama had last visited Arunachal Pradesh in 2009.  But 2017 is not 2009 in many respects: the number of high-level Sino-Indian summits that could reduce tensions is fewer, serious differences exist on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), India was rebuffed when it contrived to send the Dalai Lama to Mongolia and China is more upfront in thwarting India’s great power ambitions. India had earlier bought insurance against Beijing’s adventurism by getting co-opted in Barack Obama’s “Pivot to Asia”. But Donald Trump is yet to spell out his China policy and his meeting with Xi Jinping months before an interaction with Prime Minister Narendra Modi could be a sign of things to come.Indian diplomacy does not have a fallback option if China accepts New Delhi’s gauntlet. The multiple power centres have blunted the creativity in implementing foreign policy. Indian diplomacy is in a freeze because of the PM’s accent on an unremittingly muscular foreign policy. South Block is trying to keep China in good humour by highlighting the potential for economic partnerships. But this strategy comes up short because India opposes CPEC, the crown jewel in Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative. Diplomacy must help creatively wriggle out of strategic immobilisation. Some forthcoming regional summits will see China and India sitting across the table. Both sides must grab the chances for partnership in other areas to ensure that security disputes remain within manageable proportions.