China and India are now politicking for diplomatic space in Nepal. For the moment, New Delhi has the upper hand but the contest will continue even as the pro-India Prachanda-led Maoist and Nepali Congress government may survive till January 2018.

Pamper your Neighbour:Nepal”s Foreign Secretary Shankar Das Bairagi and China”s Ambassador to Nepal Yu Hong (2nd L) exchange documents during a signing ceremony relating to the One Belt One Road initiative in Kathmandu recently. AFP

Nepalese students protest against India. Nepal’s youth leaning towards China is the unintended consequence of the Madhesi blockade of 2015 which India tacitly supported.

CHINA’s semi-official mouthpiece, the belligerent Gl

obal Times recently warned that it would punish India for allowing the “splittist” Dalai Lama to visit Tawang. The threat needs to be taken seriously. Where can retribution be delivered? Along the 4,000 km LAC is the first place that comes to mind. But it has the potential to blow up into a local war which Beijing does not want. Its hands are full with Kim Jong-un’s shenanigans in North Korea and the US challenge to its claims in the South China Sea. It is already punishing India by raising Pakistan’s military and economic profile, blocking New Delhi’s entry to NSG and refusing to endorse Jaish-e-Mohammad’s Masood Azhar as a UN-sanctioned terrorist. It has opened a new diplomatic front in Nepal where it could puncture India’s boast of unique and special relations with Kathmandu. China has abandoned its policy of non-interference in the affairs of other countries. Last year, for the first time, it prevented the collapse of the Left Alliance KP Oli government which was blamed on India. When the Oli government finally fell a few months later, it was not without Beijing giving a good fight to save it. Both in Nepal and Sri Lanka, the two regional rivals are jockeying for space to have in place, a government of their choice. For the moment, New Delhi has the upper hand but the contest will continue even as the pro-India Prachanda-led Maoist and Nepali Congress government may survive the full life of the second Constituent Assembly till January 2018.The once pro-China Prachanda who became the Prime Minister after the 10-year-long civil war in 2008 and was removed through Indian intervention in less than a  year  never succeeded in returning to office  till last year after he had publicly admitted that India was more important for Nepal than China. Beijing expressed anger by cancelling President Xi Jinping’s visit last year and delaying an invitation to Prachanda as he had put on hold, the 10 agreements his predecessor Oli had signed with China with which India was unhappy. Prachanda did go to China for the Boao Forum and not on a state visit. The converted Prachanda’s sense of a balanced foreign policy is realigning Nepal to a special relationship with India from Oli’s push to China. Egged on by China, Oli is waiting for his moment to topple the Left-Centre coalition in a country that has seen eight Prime Ministers in nine years.With long view, founder of modern Nepal, King Prithvi Narayan Shah had said Nepal is a yam between two boulders — China and India. China has bent with the wind from once calling Maoists as miscreants who had hijacked the fair name of Mao Tse Tung to later hailing the Maoist election victory as “rediscovery of ideological similarities”. Nepal is afraid of China and accepts its diktat on Tibet, one-China policy and the taboo on its legislators meeting the Dalai Lama. China has sought parity with India in political, economic and military domains. For long, China has asked to do joint exercises with the Nepal army. This happened after the visit of Defence Minister and State Councillor Gen Chang Wanquan last month. Global Times’ loaded comment that “holding joint military exercise with China can contribute to deterring ethnic separatism in Nepal” was a veiled reference to Madhesis who have been demanding an inclusive constitution.China has increased military assistance for the Nepal army from a mere $3 mn to $33 mn, invoking the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Programme. China’s FDI has overtaken India’s and its ODA is second only to the US. During Nepal’s Investment Conclave 2017, China committed $8.3 bn and floated big ideas of connectivity in Nepal with Deputy Prime Minister KB Mahara visiting China to sign the agreement on a railway line from Kyirong to Kathmandu. China’s soft power is also at work. Numerous Confucius institutions and China study centres have mushroomed in Nepal. More than 100 Nepali schools offer free Mandarin courses, with maximum youth joining Chinese universities wearing Mandarin tattoos and using Chinese mobiles. Strangely, large number of Nepalese believe China does not interfere in their internal affairs. Nepal’s youth leaning towards China is the unintended consequence of the Madhesi blockade of 2015 which India tacitly supported and has cost it dear —  especially in people-to-people relations.  Chinese presence and activity has multiplied several times over in the last decade and is no longer benign.Three elections — panchayat, provincial and Parliamentary — have to be held within the remaining nine months before the expiry of the term of the Constituent Assembly.  Prachanda has announced a two-phase local election on May 14 and June 14, being held  after 20 years. China was the first country to provide monetary and material assistance for local  elections.   Prime Minister Modi’s promise of India’s assistance for local elections signals that it is not insisting on the constitutional amendments regarding residual  Madhesi demands, including provincial boundaries as it did in 2015. The political situation is dynamic. The Chief Justice was removed for impeachment and restored, exacerbating conflict between executive and judiciary. New political alignments are in play. Significantly, Prachanda is required to hand over the Prime Minister’s office to  Nepali Congress’s Sher Bahadur Deupa after the first phase of elections for the remaining life of the Constituent Assembly. This is where trouble could arise.   Oli with new allies, and  China, are waiting in the wings to return to power.  In 2015, India crusaded Madhesi cause demanding constitutional amendments. Initially, Oli refused which led to the five-month long blockade, rupture in India-Nepal ties and Oli turning to China. New Delhi is silent over the revised constitutional amendment, so as not to endanger the ruling coalition. Oli will give his left arm to return to government to hold crucial provincial and parliamentary elections which will decide the fate of Nepal’s democratic polity. Can China, using its money power, punish India by orchestrating the return of a UML-led Left Alliance or another coalition to challenge the time-tested India-Nepal relations?The writer is the erstwhile convener of an India-Nepal Track II dialogue