Parrikar must spend more time at South Block
If there is one consistency towards national security in the last one year, it is the National Democratic Alliance’s predilection for firing six-monthly warnings about its intent to launch covert operations against Pakistan. On June 11 last year, a junior minister, who had served in the Army and, therefore, should have known better, warned that “western disturbances” would be equally dealt with. This was soon after Indian Army commandoes had carried out a raid across the eastern border in Myanmar and destroyed two militant camps of the NSCN (Khaplang) faction. The Pakistani riposte was not long in coming when its Interior Minister warned that “Pakistan is not Myanmar.”Now Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar no less, who should know the ground situation even better than the former Colonel, has taken to the same heightened pitch. In between, the Gurdaspur attack has come and gone and there has been no sign of India walking the tough talk. It is just as well that Narendra Modi has not fallen to the temptation of indulging in a few fireworks across the border. The Indian Army is well motivated and equipped to lean across the border to even the score. But is India prepared to deal with the consequences of what comes after that?When Parrikar indulges in excessive or needless talking, is he seeking to distance himself from his Prime Minister’s endeavour to rebuild ties with Pakistan? Is the Hon’ble Raksha Mantri scripting his own Pakistan policy? Statements such as “if someone is harming the country, he should also receive the pain of such activities at a time and place of our choosing,” hardly send shivers down the spine of quarters who have made violence their calling card. Such formulations only make India look ridiculous. His remit should be to make walk-throughs like Pathankot and Gurdaspur impossible. Parrikar also needs to spend more time at his desk in South Block to craft an implementable defence manufacturing policy that remains riddled with too many gaps, especially on the crucial issue of selecting strategic partners for Indian companies.
After Parrikar’s tough talk, Rajnath says will trust Pak
Pakistan ‘submits report’ on initial findings to India
Tribune News Service,New Delhi, January 12
A day after Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said those who had inflicted pain on India “would also feel the pain”, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh today said there was “no reason” to distrust Pakistan’s commitment of “action” against perpetrators of the Pathankot attack.Talking to mediapersons on the sidelines of a function in Noida, Rajnath said, “India has given inputs related to terror attacks to Pakistan. The Pakistan government has promised to take action. I think we should wait.”Insisting that since Pakistan has assured India, the minister said, there should be no reason to disbelieve them so early. “There is no reason to distrust them (Pakistan) so early,” he said.After the attack, India had said it has provided to Pakistan actionable intelligence to act upon the perpetrators of the attack. During a post-attack telephonic conversation between PM Narendra Modi and his Pakistan counterpart Nawaz Sharif, the government had said, “Our PM very strongly urged the Pakistan PM to take action”.It had said, “Actionable intelligence in regard to the terror attack and the links with the perpetrators in Pakistan were provided to Pakistan. The Pakistan PM promised us prompt and decisive action. We now wait for its action.”Meanwhile, reports from Pakistan yesterday said law enforcement agencies had picked up “some suspects” connected to the Pathankot attack from Bahawalpur district, the hometown of Maulana Masood Azhar, the chief of banned terror outfit Jaish-e-Mohammad.India has identified Masood Azhar as the mastermind of the attack. It also blamed his brother Rauf and five others for carrying out the attack that killed six terrorists and seven soldiers on January 2.
Days to go, but no clarity on talks yet
Simran Sodhi,Tribune News Service,New Delhi, January 12
The Foreign Secretary-level talks between India and Pakistan remained in limbo even as reports emerged that Pakistan has submitted to India its initial findings. Officially, there was no word from either side as to whether any such report has been submitted, though sources in the government maintained that Pakistan has not yet sought more evidence from India.India has provided evidence to Pakistan in the form of telephone intercepts of conversations that the terrorists reportedly had with their handlers in Pakistan. According to reports in the Pakistan media, Pakistan has informed India that these telephone numbers are not registered in the country and the evidence provided by India is not enough and will not stand scrutiny in a court of law.The National Security Advisers (NSAs) of both countries continue to be in touch amid speculation that instead of the Foreign Secretaries of the two countries meeting in Islamabad on January 15 as scheduled, it could well be the NSAs meeting in a third country to discuss the Pathankot attacks.India, however, stuck to its stand that until action is seen being taken by Pakistan against the perpetrators of the Pathankot attack, talks cannot happen, indicating that the talks are likely to be postponed.Though Pakistan has shown some degree of response to India’s insistence for action on the intelligence provided by it with Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif setting up a Joint Investigative Team (JIT) comprising officials from the Military Intelligence (MI), Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and Intelligence Bureau (IB) to probe the Pathankot attacks. But for India, sources say, the action will be to see JeM leader Masood Azar arrested or detained.There is intense international pressure on both countries to talk. Hence, both sides are making efforts to salvage the talks. With Sharif, it has meant forming the JIT and conducting raids in various villages and even arresting a few people who might be connected to these attacks. India has firmly put the ball in Pakistan’s court.
NSAs may meet to discuss attacks
- The National Security Advisers (NSAs) of India and Pakistan continue to be in touch amid speculation that instead of the Foreign Secretaries meeting in Islamabad on January 15, the NSAs may meet in a third country to discuss the Pathankot attacks
‘Mobile numbers not registered in Pakistan’
- Pakistan has reportedly informed India that the telephone numbers provided to them are not registered in the country and the evidence is not enough and will not stand scrutiny in a court of law
Strategic setback. It’s Israel, China buy-buy
The high optics of Modi”s meeting with Israeli leadership, ardently backed by the defence community”s right-wing corner, have failed to halt Tel Aviv”s move towards strategic ties with China.
AFTER Russia breached the exclusivity in its military association with India, Israel may be the next in line despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s unprecedented contacts for an Indian Prime Minister with the Jewish state. Modi had become the first Indian Prime Minister to hold a meeting under arclights with his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu in New York besides holding an extended conversation with President Reuven Rivlin at Singapore strongman Lee Kuan Yew’s funeral. To the accompaniment of a crescendo of approvals from the right corner of the Indian strategic community, Modi let it be known that he will become the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Jerusalem. The tour was going to be packaged with balancing-out stopovers in a couple of Muslim-majority countries.It may not longer be a mystery why neither External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj nor Modi could persuade themselves to visit Tel Aviv the whole of last year despite making an announcement to that effect (Ms. Swaraj will now visit Tel Aviv from January 17). Instead the Government opted to send President Pranab Mukherjee to the three destinations, including Israel. The reason lies in Israel’s inability to resist Chinese overtures for its military equipment. Even as the right-wing corner of the Indian strategic community was hailing the upswing in ties with Tel Aviv and diplomats of both countries were burning the wires to prepare for the Modi visit, China was indulging in some quiet bargaining with Israeli defence manufacturers. As in the past, once military equipment is sold to China, it is a matter of time before Pakistan lays its hands on it. The recent inauguration of a top Israeli defence company’s factory in China has negated some 15 years of spirited Indian diplomacy to thwart the two from defence cooperation that enters the realm of joint research and development. With active US help, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government had accomplished something very rare in the annals of international military trade. Israel was forced to return Chinese advance payment for high-end aircraft-mounted radars that spot planes in a 400-km radius, thus providing considerable advance warning for the air defence systems to get ready for action. Without resorting to this Government’s penchant for high-end optics, the Vajpayee Government followed by the Manmohan Singh regime then quietly shaped a unique India-Israel-Russia partnership to get this technology for its armed forces.For the record, Israel Aeropsace Industries (IAI) claims its upcoming factory in China will cater to the civilian sector. The ambitious Chinese plans to double the number of its civilian fleet and add about 60 airports within the next two decades may underscore the assertion. It is true that China-Israel military relationship is of older vintage than India’s defence ties with Tel Aviv. Goaded by the US, China and Israel had separately equipped the Mujaheedin in Afghanistan to take on the Soviet Red Army. Israel is also said to be China’s second biggest foreign supplier of military equipment. This statistic conceals Israel’s huge gap with Russia, China’s biggest supplier of equipment. It also does not tell the story of Israel developing military equipment for India not obtainable elsewhere in the world such as Barak ship-busting missiles, advanced men and equipment-detection radars and lethal aircraft-fired missiles. The Chinese breakthrough in poaching companies exclusively equipping the Indian armed forces is the second strategic set back in the defence sphere during this Government’s tenure. Russia had caused a flutter in the Indian strategic community when six months into the Modi Government, its Defence Minister went to Islamabad and met Pakistan’s leadership. Two months earlier, Pakistan army chief Raheel Sharif witnessed live demonstrations of Russian military equipment, inked a defence cooperation pact and came away with a promise for the same Mi-35 attack helicopters deployed by India in Pathankot to scorch wooded portions near the airbase where militants were believed to have been hiding. Pakistan has so far been using F-16s for bombing bases of rogue Taliban factions. Operating from lower heights, the Mi-35s cause considerably less collateral damage or inadvertent killing of civilians, a factor that has fed vengeful recruits to Taliban and Al-Qaida factions trying to bring down the Pakistani State. More important, Mi-35s are deployed as tank busters, flying over own side’s armoured formations to destroy oncoming enemy tanks. As a follow up of the first contract for four Mi-35s, Russia has promised to supply Pakistan with at least 20 more pieces. These have the potential to even out the overhead advantage enjoyed by Indian tank formations in the event of a thrust into Pakistan.Apart from India, Russia had so far supplied these helicopters to Brazil, Venezuela and Azerbaijan. None of them is likely to turn over the technology to Pakistan till the present Government’s inordinate proximity to the US led Russia to redraw its strategic game plan for military cooperation in South Asia.Now Israel seems unable to resist Chinese overtures for its military technology. Apart from Modi’s top-level meetings, India abstained from a recent UN vote on the Israel’s strong arm tactics in Gaza, the first time ever. The first visit by an Israeli Defence Minister to India also took place under his watch. Modi also did the unprecedented for an Indian Prime Minister to keep Israel happy. He got himself photographed while standing next to the booth of an Israeli company at the Indian defence expo last year. His spin managers billed it was a public display of Israel and India’s strategic relationship. That solid and quiet diplomacy and agile political footwork is no match for ploys such as these has become painfully apparent after the same company, IAI, now breaks bread with the Chinese. China in the past could not persuade four visiting Israeli Presidents and three Prime Ministers to go the whole hog in defence equipment transfers. Modi’s simplistic approach to international relations may have unravelled India’s previous efforts to prevent exactly that.
sandeep4731@gmail.com