Lahore initiative raises hope, but Delhi can”t lower guard

It was Christmas day, a ‘bara din’ as most people call it in India and Pakistan. The date coincided with some other birth anniversary celebrations; that of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in India, Pakistan’s Quaid-e-Azam, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. In Kabul, after inaugurating the new Parliament House, and pillorying Pakistan-supported terrorism for fuelling unrest in Afghanistan in his address, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to Nawaz Sharif and conveyed his greetings and good wishes on his birthday. The latter responded in a typical friendly neighbour fashion and said ‘since you would be flying over my country, why don’t you drop by and also bless my granddaughter Mehrunissa at her wedding’. Modi accepted that spontaneously. That spontaneity may or may not have been scripted or choreographed, but it caused a diplomatic coup in the Indo-Pakistan relations.Modi was able to achieve what his predecessor Dr Manmohan Singh had dreamt of: having breakfast in Delhi, lunch in Lahore and dinner in Kabul, albeit in the reverse order.While analysing the implication of this historical and surprise stopover, the strategic ‘chatterati’ has got divided into two groups: the conventionalists and the unconventionalists. The conventionalists, somewhat miffed with Modi’s increasingly diplomatic secrecy and surprises, consider it as a diplomatically ‘not done’ gesture and a hasty decision. Having grown up in a risk-averse culture, they feel that such impromptu, unplanned VIP visits are not serious diplomacy, but meaningless optics. It can dilute India’s uncompromising stand on Pakistan- sponsored terrorism and other substantive Indo-Pakistan disputes. Modi could soon be walking through a hazardous minefield, just as Vajpayee did in Lahore. The unconventionalists are also surprised. But they laud the event and consider it a bold step by Modi. They feel that such an unconventional step was required to defreeze the ice (partly caused by the RSS-BJP-Shiv Sena combine itself) before the hard part of the substantive menu arrives in the Indo-Pakistan dialogue. The impromptu visit has made clear the Modi style of diplomacy. He likes to involve in one-to-one personal chemistry with political leaders of the world, away from the media glare and the highly polarised domestic politics. It is more like what is practiced amongst presidential type of governments. Such informal, short notice meetings, quite common in the West, enable personal bonding and trust building, and provide a clearer political agenda and umbrella to the subordinates in resolving sensitive diplomatic issues. On the Indian subcontinent, such practices, if not handled deftly, can put own political capital and national diplomacy at risk. So far, Modi’s decision to visit Nawaz Sharif’s house has been viewed favourably by most citizens and even the media both in India and Pakistan. So, how should we look at this stopover meeting?As per academic jargon, national security interests (the ‘ends’) of a country are achieved through strategic choices (the ‘ways’) and its instruments of national power (the ‘means’— in this case diplomacy). While discussing Modi’s impromptu Lahore stopover, many people have tended to mix the ‘ways’ with the ‘ends’. I believe that we should look at it as part of ‘ways’ only; one more gesture added to his engagement strategy in creating a conducive atmosphere of peace and trust before discussing (and facilitating) issues which form part of the ‘ends’.  The impact of this visit should be assessed in the number of ceasefire violations and terror incidents in the coming days. If the number reduces, this approach and gesture can be considered useful. If not, then Modi’s effort would be considered unnecessary and he could face flak.  How do I view the engagement flip-flops and recent developments in the Indo-Pakistan relations?Till recently, the Bharatiya Janata Party and some of its allies had attempted to come across to the Indian electorate as a strong patriotic and nationalist party. In that process, many of its leaders and candidates indulged in over-the-top political rhetoric. Some fringe elements went overboard in their communal and anti-Pakistan statements without realising, or being aware, that India’s foreign and domestic policies, just like the external and internal security policies, have a strong linkage. That was wrong. Given the geography, history and regional and global geopolitics, India and Pakistan have to remain engaged, even in a conflict situation. We did that at the political as well as military level during the Kargil war. After coming to power, the NDA government took two nuanced steps in pursuing the Pakistan policy: It allowed security forces to retaliate strongly on ceasefire violations and attempts in cross-border terrorists’ movement. It disallowed Hurriyat leaders to meet Pakistani VIPs visiting India. According to intelligence reports, most Hurriyat leaders have an established nexus with terrorist groups and the ISI. Personally, I favour both these measures. The government also did well at Ufa (in Russia) to bring cross-border terrorism as a high-priority agenda at the high table discussions. The progress was stalled — almost halted — when the Pakistan army objected to the Ufa joint statement and forced its government to change tack and make Kashmir the number one agenda point. Since then, the quiet, some backdoor diplomacy and off-the-media glare meetings of the two prime ministers have enabled both countries to resume dialogue at different levels. Modi’s stopover visit can have one more implication: on the civil-military relations in Pakistan. It was Gen Raheel Sharif, Pakistan army chief, who made the Pakistani political leadership bend and change the discussion agenda decided at the Ufa joint conference. These days, his popularity in Pakistan is soaring. It cannot be to the liking and interest of the political establishment. Modi’s acceptance of Nawaz Sharif’s invitation, personal reception, greetings, the warm hugs, and then travelling together in a helicopter to his Raiwind house has made both political leaders more popular and acceptable in Pakistan. It would be a shot in the arm for the political setup in Pakistan, particularly Nawaz Sharif.Narendra Modi’s very recent speech at the Combined Commanders’ Conference held on India’s aircraft carrier, INS Vikramaditya, may help in understanding the objective and approach of his Pakistan policy. He said, “We are engaging Pakistan to try and turn the course of history, bring an end to terrorism, build peaceful relations, advance cooperation and promote stability and prosperity in our region. There are many challenges and barriers on the path. But the effort is worth it because the peace dividends are huge and the future of our children is at stake. “So, we will test their intentions to define the path ahead. For this, we have started a new NSA-level dialogue to bring security experts face to face with each other. But we will never drop our guard on security and continue to judge progress on their commitments on terrorism.” At this stage of Indo-Pakistan relations, we can hope for the best, but must remain alert and be prepared for the worst.

— The writer is a former Indian Army Chief