The ongoing conflict in West Asia has a deep-rooted history of existential differences between the principal protagonists. Since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel and developments leading to the US-led strike on Iran in June 2025, the escalation reached a peak when US and Israel launched combined airstrikes on Iran that began on February 28, 2026, targeting Iran’s military infrastructure, nuclear assets, and leadership.
The June 2026 ceasefire and memorandum of understanding (mediated through Pakistan) temporarily curbed full-scale ground/air combat, though low-level strikes and maritime incidents persist. In November 2026, reports emerged that Iran transmitted a conditional proposal through Qatar featuring seven demands, including ending the naval blockade and ‘US acts of aggression’as the US weighs potential renewed military campaigns during the post-election period.
Elevated Geopolitical Instability
The US midterm elections have evinced more interparty and intraparty stress than usual. Europe is plagued by widespread protests that have turned violent. The Middle East, a region where a degree of tension is the norm, is experiencing regular tensions between Sunnis and Shiites, while the Gulf states’ level of stress has soared due to the war in Iran. The conflict has spilled into parts of Africa, particularly around the Horn of Africa, and virtually every other region of the world because of its impact on trade and energy. Last but not the least, there is still a war on in Ukraine that has wrecked Russia’s economy and inflicted damage on both sides.
The US disengagement from Europe, and the difficulty of European nations to fill the gap has forced Europe to reconsider its present and future, which has ultimately led to destabilisation. In the Middle East, the US stance has forced the Mecca accord into existence and triggered a war that has hurt the economies of virtually every country on earth, including Israel.
The geopolitical situation between the ongoing Iran war and Europe is marked by severe security spillovers, direct Iranian threats against European soil, economic strain and a growing internal divide over transatlantic alignment. Direct threats to Europe include missile warnings by Iranian military commanders and parliamentarians, who have threatened to target European countries, specifically Italy and Germany, if the US uses bases on their territories to launch strikes against Iran.
Nations like Germany have backed US/allied positions, but countries like Spain have sharply criticised the military intervention as illegal under international law, prompting diplomatic and trade retaliation threats from US President Donald Trump. There are geographically different concerns as Eastern and Northern European states remain hyper-focused on Russian deterrence and Ukraine, whereas Southern and Mediterranean European nations prioritise energy security, maritime stability and migration fallout from the Middle East.
GCC countries and Regional Security Gulf countries have stepped up diplomacy with Iran in a bid to de-escalate tensions across the Middle East amid fears of renewed US strikes and the intensifying hostilities between Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. The three nations that signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement in August – Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye – and diplomats from Qatar met in October 2026 with high-ranking Iranian officials to mark the first high-level contact between Iran and the Mecca mutual defence pact nations since the US-Israel war on Iran began.
Iran has long advocated for a regional security architecture that would reduce or eliminate US military presence. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, however, remain deeply integrated into the US security system. The recent war has certainly raised questions about the reliability of American security guarantees, but this has encouraged these countries to diversify security partnerships rather than fundamentally redefine strategic alignments.