Donald Trump’s proposed $175 billion Golden Dome missile defence system is the most ambitious U.S. missile shield initiative since Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI), known as “Star Wars”.

The plan envisions a multi-layered shield using hundreds of satellites equipped with sensors and interceptors—potentially including space-based lasers—to detect and destroy incoming ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic missiles from adversaries such as China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea.

Comparison To Reagan’s Star Wars (SDI)

Like SDI, Golden Dome aims to intercept missiles at all stages of flight, including the “boost phase,” which is technically the most challenging. Reagan’s SDI was ultimately abandoned after years of investment due to insurmountable technical and financial hurdles, as the necessary technology did not exist at the time and remains highly challenging today. Critics have drawn direct parallels between the two projects, noting that while technology has advanced, the scale and complexity of defending the entire U.S. from advanced missile threats is vastly greater than the regional defence provided by systems like Israel’s Iron Dome.

Technical And Strategic Challenges

Scale And Complexity: The U.S. is far larger than Israel, making nationwide coverage exponentially more difficult. The Iron Dome was designed for short-range, low-volume threats, whereas Golden Dome must counter long-range, high-speed, and manoeuvrable threats (ICBMs, hypersonic glide vehicles, and orbital systems).

Technological Hurdles: Intercepting missiles in the boost phase requires rapid detection and response, which is extremely difficult given the short window and the speeds involved. Many proposed technologies, such as space-based lasers, remain unproven at scale.

Cost And Timeline: The Congressional Budget Office estimates a truly comprehensive missile shield could cost over $500 billion across two decades, far exceeding Trump’s $175 billion, three-year plan. Cost overruns and delays are likely, as seen with past missile defence programs.

Strategic Risks: Deploying such a system could accelerate an arms race, prompting adversaries to develop new offensive capabilities to overwhelm or evade the shield, further destabilizing global security.

Expert Consensus

Most independent experts and analysts believe the Golden Dome is unlikely to achieve its stated goals. The technical, financial, and strategic obstacles mirror those that doomed the SDI; despite advances, the fundamental challenges of intercepting sophisticated, high-speed missile threats over a vast area remain unresolved. Even if partial capabilities are fielded, the system is expected to fall short of comprehensive protection and may provoke adversaries to escalate their own weapons programs.

“The plan for an advanced missile defence shield over the US offers no guarantee of success and risks undermining global security… Like the Golden Dome, the SDI proposed a layered defence system that would rely on cutting-edge, and largely untested, technologies… But despite years of investment, the SDI never produced a workable system and was eventually cancelled, exposing the gap between ambition and capability that still exists today.”

Conclusion

Trump’s Golden Dome missile shield faces the same insurmountable challenges as Reagan’s Star Wars: unproven technology, immense cost, and the near-impossibility of reliably defending the entire U.S. from advanced missile threats. History and technical realities suggest the plan is bound to fall short of its ambitions, just as SDI did decades ago.

IDN