Operation Sindoor was in response to a cross border terrorist attack at a place close to Pahalgam in Kashmir valley where 26 Indians were mercilessly killed. The concerned terrorists from across the border had come deep inside the valley and later seem to have made good their escape. For India it was a major intelligence failure and security lapse for which accountability is yet to be fixed and appropriate action initiated against those responsible for this failure. Also Read – Fragmented Reflections On The “Time of Monsters” Earlier India had carried out retaliatory operations in the form of surgical strikes against terrorist launch pads and bombed terrorist camps at Balakot. Operation Sindoor was enlarged in response to the terrorist attack at Pahalgam. It included strikes on nine known terrorist centers, some deep inside Pakistan and some military infrastructures. During this operation, drones and missiles were extensively used. Also Read – The History And Geo-Politics Of The Rohingya Crisis India’s air defence systems performed extremely well and troops displayed appropriate skill in handling high-tech military equipment. Much of the equipment with Pakistan was from China. While India did hit designated targets, Pakistan’s success lay in shelling Indian villages in Jammu and Kashmir and inflicting large scale civilian casualties. Pakistan also claimed knocking down Indian fighter planes. The precise figures of casualties on either side are not known. Nor has the full extent of damage to military assets on either side been disclosed. Also Read – India Must Use Investigation To De-Hyphenate Pakistan We have to wait and see if this operation is enough to dissuade Pakistan from continuing with cross border terror attacks and give up its policy of ‘thousand cuts’ against India. Going by the past record and Pakistan army Chief’s recent statement, it is less likely for Pakistan to refrain from this nefarious activity, more so when China would be encouraging it to continue to engage India in cross border conflict. Also Read – India Launches F-32 ! In response to the next terror attack, as and when it takes place, India’s response, in all probability will be substantially enhanced from that of Op Sindoor. If it turns out to be so, then the possibility of the conflict getting enlarged is very much there. India needs to determine in realistic terms the Red Line, which when crossed, may tempt Pakistan to reach for the nuclear button. Pakistan must realize the outcome of a nuclear conflict and its end result. While India feels that enough damage has been done to selected targets, Pakistan too has been claiming that it adequately dealt with the Indian offensive action. In recognition of the Pakistan army’s performance, its army chief, General Asim Munir has been promoted to the rank of Field Marshal. That apart, what should be of concern to us is the world at large did not stand by India in this brief conflict. On the other hand, four to five countries openly supported Pakistan, and some even supplied military equipment. All this does reflect on the success of our foreign policy, more so when reviewed in the light of the fact that we do not have adequately friendly relations with any of our immediate neighbors. Our Foreign Minister, before the launch of Operation Sindoor warned Pakistan about our attack on terrorist centers and advised its military not to get involved in this action by India. Later he changed his statement to say that he warned Pakistan of this attack after 15 minutes (later he shifted this time to 30 minutes ) of its launch. Perhaps this is his idea of good diplomacy and not knowing that it is a serious breach of security which perhaps resulted in the escape of some terrorists from these centers and put in danger the safety of our aircrafts and lives of our pilots. Leader of Opposition, Rahul Gandhi has raised this issue in one of the national newspapers. We have now dispatched a number of teams consisting of MPs to various countries to brief them on Pakistan’s terrorist activities and the compulsions for India to launch Operation Sindoor. It is merely a case of shutting the gate after the horse has bolted. The credit for Operation Sindoor’s suspension within three days is being claimed by the American President, Donald Trump and his staff, who alleged to have worked overnight, speaking to the Prime Ministers of India and Pakistan to terminate hostilities. Trump also proposed to resolve the Kashmir problem between the two countries. Further he had threatened India that he would otherwise close trade with it. On the other hand the Indian leadership maintains that agreement for the ceasefire was reached between the Director General Operations ( DGMOs) of the two countries and later approved by the respective governments. India ruled out the American President’s offer to help resolve the Kashmir problem. As for India, there is no such thing as the Kashmir problem. The problem, if any, relates to Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. ( PoK) The issue that needs looking into is whether Pakistan will give up its policy of staging terrorist attacks against India. What one must realize is that Pakistan’s army’s existence in its present state is related to maintaining hostile relations with India. If relations between India and Pakistan become friendly to the extent that the possibility of any conflict between these countries does not exist, then there can be no rationale for Pakistan to have such a large army and its consequent heavy strain on the country’s economy. Added to this is the China factor. China wields great influence in Pakistan and would make sure that relations with India remain strained. Therefore, in all probability Pakistan will continue with its policy of thousand cuts against India. Some months later Pakistan may stage a major terrorist attack and then be fully ready to deal with Indian reaction. China will keep giving more and more high tech military equipment to Pakistan. China would strive to strengthen the Pakistan Air Force. In the event of conflict with India, China’s support to Pakistan will mainly be in cyber, information and supply of weapons, ammunition and equipment. The point is that in such a situation what should India do! Should it respond to every minor terrorist attack or wait for some enhanced attack to take place to stage an operation at a scale higher than that of Op Sindoor. The likely outcome of enhanced action by India has every possibility of enlarging the conflict. Or is there another option with India which may prove more effective and make Pakistan realize its folly in following the anti-India policy. This option for India is to warn Pakistan that another terrorist attack against India will result in the termination of the Indus Water Treaty and not its recasting, as being proposed by some. Earlier the impression was that the World Bank would intervene in this case, but now the Chairman World Bank has stated in unequivocal terms that it is only a facilitator and no more. In the meantime, India should examine, in detail, the ways and manner by which it can starve Pakistan of waters for irrigation etc. At present India can, to a sufficient extent, block flow of water in Chenab River, which is the main source of water for irrigation in Pakistan’s Punjab. Water stressed population of Pakistan, particularly that from Punjab is bound to impress upon its government and military to end support to terrorists and improve relations with India. It is for Pakistan’s public to realize that its army is unnecessarily creating the bogey of a threat from India. There is a pressing need for their country to reduce expenditure on it’s military and focus on economic development of the country. Its present poor state of economy and near bankruptcy, cannot bear high expenditure on defence. Pakistan desperately needs to develop good relations with India. Good relations and enhanced trade with India will work to Pakistan’s great advantage. Finally, what has been the sum total of gains from ‘Op Sindoor for India and Pakistan! For India, besides demonstrating its resolve to meet head-on cross border terrorism, there are expectations of enormous electoral gain. India suffered casualties in soldiers and civilians. On the Pakistan side, it had multiple effects. Firstly, the fissures that were surfacing in its army seems, to some extent, to be closed. Army’s standing in the country appears to have been restored. Finally, the army chief has gained the confidence of the army, political class and the country, having performed well during this operation. There is every possibility of his engineering a conflict with India. . Lt General Harwant Singh (Retired) is former Deputy Chief of Army Staff. Views expressed are the writer’s own.

https://www.thecitizen.in/opinion/fragmented-reflections-on-the-time-of-monsters-1147604