Under Fire: The biggest setback is the mishandling of the Ram Rahim episode.

KC Singh

PAST fortnight has been a mixed bag politically for the BJP. The setbacks outnumber the lone success at handling the Doklam imbroglio effectively.  The list of missteps is long — the nine Bench judgment of the Supreme Court holding the right to privacy as a fundamental right, on which the government unconvincingly pirouetted to claim it favoured the right anyway. Trouble simmers in the Centre’s arranged marriage between two factions of the orphaned AIADMK, ignoring that Jayalalitha’s conscience-keeper Sasikala, though jailed, still possesses the legacy and vast resources. Honeymoon for another marriage — BJP and JD-U in Bihar — is interrupted by the news of a fodder scandal II that may singe two union ministers and worthies in the state alliance. The BJP’s perennial nemesis, Arvind Kejriwal, has scored a decisive win in the Bawana byelection, putting paid to attempts to marginalise him. Among the reasons is growing job losses in the informal sector due to GST implementation, hitting Poorvanchalis the most.The biggest setback has been the mishandling of the Gurmit Ram Rahim episode. The Haryana Government’s pandering to him by letting him mass-gather followers at Panchkula and then permitting him to careen through the heartland of Haryana in a 200-car motorcade was a blatant attempt to intimidate the judiciary. The high court, particularly the bench of acting Chief Justice Saron, held the Haryana administration’s feet to the fire. Then special CBI judge delivered the coup de grace by upholding the might of the law. The BJP defence that the Chief Minister was beyond reproach as the outbreak of violence was controlled in hours ignores that nearly 40 lives were lost. This was not sensible policing. It was enforcement of law of the land by massacre. The governments in Chandigarh and Delhi may or may not introspect on their lapses, but the region needs to examine why common folks are flocking to the deras of conmen masquerading as messengers of God. Gurmit Rahim displayed not only extremely flawed moral sense, but even cowardice when he fell sobbing on hearing the verdict. Clearly, this was no messenger of God that humanity worships. Studies done globally on the rise of cults or alternative faith systems have arrived at different conclusions about why people flock to them. Most are idiosyncratic groupings that are generally peaceable, but some have turned violent. What makes deras dangerous in India is their ability to turn their followers into electoral behemoths that political parties woo. Dera Sacha Sauda leadership has been a political pestilence in Punjab and Haryana for two decades, blackmailing and bargaining for greater power and affluence. The fault lay with both states, which did not cater to marginalised beings, and organised religions, including Sikhism, which did not make many of their adherents stakeholders in their institutions, or sometimes even welcome in their places of worship. One baba jailed will not change the fundamental socio-religious deficiencies, which will invariably breed the next ‘Love Charger’.The only good news for the BJP comes from the successful handling of the Doklam standoff. The differences in statements by the two sides can be ignored as both needed face-savers. The crucial test of success would be if indeed China abandons attempts to build a road or infrastructure in an area vital to Indian security. The issue needs deeper analysis.Henry Kissinger is a great resource for reading the Chinese mind having interacted with all five generations of Chinese leaders, beginning with Mao. In his book On China, he narrates Mao Zedong telling his military brass on the eve of their 1962 attack on India that the two nations had already fought ‘one and a half’ wars. The first war was during Tang Dynasty (618-907) when China sent troops to help a kingdom counter a usurper. The second was the Mongol sacking of Delhi 600 years later, on the assumption that China and Mongolia then were part of the same political entity. The lesson that India needs to draw from this is that China views events through the prism of history and on a millennium long scale.Later in his book, Kissinger analyses the Chinese diplomatic strategy, explaining that diplomacy for them is the weaving together of political, military and psychological elements in an overall strategic design. Personal equations do not affect their calculations, except where necessary to advance their interests. Hence, PM  Modi sharing a swing with Xi Jinping in Ahmedabad would have minimal effect on power play at the border. Above all, China acts with suddenness after making time their ally.The Chinese did strategic cost-benefit calculations about Doklam. Threats and fire-power drills were not affecting India; the US and Japan were threatening war against a recalcitrant Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, unwilling to listen to Chinese advice; India had begun investigations against Chinese companies for suspected Indian data transfer off-shore; trade war would affect China more as their exports are nearly four times those of India; and President Donald Trump’s speech spelling out the new Afghan policy included kudos to India, imploring it to play a greater security role in Asia-Pacific. What finally clinched success for India was the shutting window for time as the BRICS summit was a week away and a boycott by PM Modi would have embarrassed President Xi on the eve of the crucial 19th Party Congress, where he names his new team and successor, if any.Paradoxically, while being resolute and unbending worked with China as geopolitics favoured India, the same when translated into cussedness domestically is bad politics. In a vast nation like India, policy making must be by building support and co-opting the Opposition. Retaining ineffective leaders like CM Khattar, or using whatever means possible to divide and pillory opposition turns the political environment toxic and the people sullen. The mood of the nation will swing away from the BJP government if the missteps persist. Doklam too could buy success in the short run as China, recalling Mao’s contextualisation of the 1962 War, has an elephantine memory. The writer is a former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs