Isolation in view of Saudi Arabia, China summits a major concern

Right moves: China has had its way, be it the CPEC or OBOR.

THREE events, one a week ago and the others in the coming week, will shape geo-politics. First, the victory of Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential election with 65 per cent vote has redefined politics of the left and right as traditionally understood. Then the One-Belt One-Road summit in China on May 14-15 is to re-configure trade routes and production lines linking China and Asia to Europe, Africa and Latin America. China is imposing a new geography on the old trading order dominated by the US and Europe. Finally, Donald Trump’s opening foray abroad to attend three summits in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia i.e. bilateral summit with hosts, with leaders of six GCC (Gulf Coordination Council) nations and of a Sunni/Islamic alliance to counter the IS and Iran. Each one requires closer examination.The terms left and right in politics emanate from the French Revolution in 1789. In the French national assembly, pro-revolution elements sat on the left while those for the old monarchical and feudal order sat on the right. The rise and success of Emmanuel Macron, after abandoning the socialists in whose government he was a minister, on a new centrist pro-Europe and calibrated reform agenda, has redefined the traditional left-right binaries of French politics. In the process, he demolished traditional ruling parties of either block, the final contest being between him and the extreme right wing leader, Marine Le Pen of the National Front. Paradoxically, while he is a former investment banker and advocates economic reform and moderate and inclusive policies, Le Pen shed tears for ‘the real people… the ordinary decent people’. The right was sounding almost Marxist, wrapping blatant racism and xenophobia in populist clothing. In the US too, President Trump rejigged the traditional Republican Party agenda to espouse a populist, anti-globalisation and xenophobic platform, claiming to speak for the ‘small’ people. Macron’s centrism in the face of rampant counter-liberalism in Europe became a test case for the soul of the EU. Although the next month’s election in the UK will revive debate about the future of the European Union, for the moment, the French electorate has shown more maturity than those in the US and the UK, even though the issues were identical. In the past too, political parties on the left learnt to adapt to confront conservative forces. Labour in the UK under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown rebranded itself as ‘New Labour’ by abandoning in 1986 traditional commitment to strikes, collective bargaining and nationalisation. They espoused issues, normally reserved for conservatives, like law and order, welfare reform, small businesses and taxation burden. Thus they put Labour on the side of Britain’s aspirational majority. Similarly, Bill Clinton was able to nudge Democrats to more centrist positions in 1994. His wife Hillary in 2016, desiring to retain the rainbow coalition of her predecessor Barack Obama, contrariwise ended up driving the white majority into the Trump tent playing the siren song to their fears and prejudices. India too has seen a similar shift of electoral plates from caste, populist or simply region-driven platforms of the Congress and the opposition parties to the rise of Narendra Modi. The BJP under Modi is combining the cultural and religious agenda of the extreme right wing Hindutva proponents with nationalism, often relapsing into jingoism, and an economic platform with traces of Indira Gandhi’s ‘Garibi hatao’ and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s partiality to oligarchs livened with selective economic reform. Demonetisation was and tax terror continues to be aimed at both garnering revenue and providing the poor and marginalised cathartic pleasure. The Chinese summit is the culmination of President Xi Jinping’s idea, first mooted in 2013, for seamless connectivity across Eurasia and the oceans. China expects 110 countries and 28 heads of state and government to attend, including those of Russia, Turkey, Argentina and Italy. The sheer scale is mind-boggling. About 50 Chinese state-owned corporations have participated in 1,700 projects to develop ports, roads, rail-lines and industrial parks. China thus will utilise its surplus productive capacity in steel, etc. abroad. It also plans to pass on low-income jobs to partner nations while moving its economy to a higher-income employment mode. India’s immediate neighbours like Bangladesh and Nepal are on board the Chinese bandwagon. Pakistan’s participation has put India in a quandary as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passes through portions of erstwhile kingdom of Kashmir which India claims. Indian attendance would grant de facto legitimacy to the CPEC part of the OBOR. Indian absence in the face of regional tilt towards participation risks isolation. On balance, the Modi government is right in not conceding strategic space to China. But a solution will have to be found by India conditionally accepting CPEC, provided a broader Sino-Pak entente with India is worked out.The Riyadh summit upends Obama’s West Asia policy which leveraged the P5-Iran nuclear deal to rebalance traditional US dependence on Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Israel to backstop its interests in the region. Trump is reversing course to resurrect a Sunni alliance. Simultaneously, Trump is attempting to wean away Russia from supporting Iran and Assad regime in Syria. Putin’s price to oblige may be major concessions by the West on NATO, Ukraine, etc. The sudden sacking of the FBI director, overseeing the enquiry into Trump campaign links to Russia, will cause political turbulence in Washington and may further damage Trump presidency. Of note to India is the announced presence of Nawaz Sharif at Riyadh. He will, no doubt, meet Trump and other Sunni alliance grandees. The geo-politics is rearranging to Pakistan’s liking. The isolation of India, in view of the two summits in Saudi Arabia and China, should concern the Modi government. Jingoism, cultural and religious evangelism and misplaced sense of global predominance are producing hubris. Allowing two neighbours, Pakistan and China, always in cahoots, to openly align is poor conduct of foreign policy. Basing it on continued US backing and GCC neutrality, while ignoring gaurakshaks baiting Muslims, is irrational. All three events lead to the same question: can India throw up a Macron? Normally it is easier for that in a presidential system than the Westminster one. The Opposition does not merely need unity; it needs a new liberal-centrist face.