Monthly Archives: August 2018

‘Humbled’ China may go for ‘salami slicing’ of disputed areas

Keep the peace: Confrontation shouldn’t be met with jingoism; a sure recipe for a flareup.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (retd)WITH the reported presence through winter of enhanced strength of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China opposite Doklam, with improved operational and logistics infrastructure, is a Chinese military standoff or more with India almost a surety in 2018? The end of the 72-day standoff over Doklam was hailed as pragmatic; an example of political maturity and military astuteness by all. That was the need of the hour for China. It was about to conduct its five-yearly signature political event, the Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) from October 18, 2017. Xi Jinping’s image would not be very high if China was seen to be in the middle of an ugly border spat with a neighbour, which could turn violent with an innocuous trigger. It was also hosting the BRICS Summit at Xiamen, and, presumably, could not be seen to be in an armed border standoff with one of the members. If China did actually pull back from the standoff, albeit reluctantly and without clarity and with those events now over, what holds it back from pressing its claims in the next season and instigating a similar situation? The Army Chief, Gen Bipin Rawat, to his credit, did mention that we have to be prepared for more such standoffs with China, which could resort to “salami slicing” and muscle flexing by it to nibble away at areas claimed by it and under dispute with India.The 19th CPC was about bigger things. It set the tone for China’s future superpower status by 2050 and capability to win wars. Doklam was just an aberration, but for Jinping’s personal ego and that of the PLA, it was enough of a setback, temporarily papered over. India won fulsome praise for its ability not to back down in the face of severe intimidation. This model is being examined by various nations in East and South East Asia, perhaps much to the embarrassment of the PLA and Xi himself. So, is China likely to be in a hurry to retrieve lost prestige from the perceived slight or remain pragmatic and patient? It needs to be remembered that in the leadership provided by Xi in the last five years and more, diplomacy and economic leveraging have played a major role. Yet the restructuring of the military and Xi’s ability to push new strategy has dominated the scene. In its stance towards the disputes in the South China Sea and with Japan in East Asia, China has continued to follow the “Three Warfares” principles adopted in 2003. These relate to intense psychological operations, media manipulation and legal warfare designed to manipulate perception of target audiences on claims put forth by China. The manifestation of this, in practice, really commenced more robustly under Xi although “war under informationised conditions” was a strategy first mooted in the early ’90s. This is the broad strategy it has played out in Ladakh over the last seven to eight years with “walk in operations” aimed to see the capitulation of Indian leadership under persistent claims pressed through military pressure, albeit without firing a shot.  It could always have triggered an armed standoff and hoped to secure its claim lines under imposed robust duress on the Indian forces. Yet, China has long been the exponent of Sun Tzu’s concept of winning wars without fighting; “to subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill”, wrote Sun Tzu, thus giving Chinese military thought a supposed pearl. In Xi’s assumed slight due to Doklam there exists the greatest potential of employing Sun Tzu’s age-old philosophy juxtaposed with the modern concept of “Three Warfares”. This should rest some minds which assume war fighting as the only realm of Chinese strategy. Xi should, and probably will, not be in any hurry to restore his pride after the slight at Doklam because he has gained enough stature after the 19th Congress of the CPC. The enhanced military presence opposite Doklam is a part of the three warfares strategy. However, winning without going to war in the context of the Doklam involves two things. First is to build the disputed road unhindered on the territory claimed by it, but currently technically under Bhutan’s control; second, to establish a closer diplomatic relationship with Bhutan as a breakthrough and wean it away from Indian “stranglehold”, much as Nepal has been weaned away.For India, it will be a win-win if it can continue to retain Bhutan’s loyalty and thereby play up the Indo-Bhutan Friendship Treaty of 2007 for mutual consultation and prevention of use of each other’s territory for inimical purposes. Thus in Bhutan lies the key and the focal point. If China really wishes to follow the wisdom of its ancient sage with the technology of the modern times, it will focus on Bhutan, while continually intimidating India through low-level military standoff, but high-energy media and psychological war with persistence on claims to keep the legal pressure at a high, almost akin to the South China Sea dispute. Military brinkmanship will, no doubt, form a part of it, but the area where China is likely to be more cautious and probably review its strategy is in the field of media manipulation. Its information strategy in 2017 backfired as state mouthpieces, The Global Times and People’s Daily just could not make that difference. In a ham-handed show of information warfare, China failed to intimidate India, placate Bhutan or win support internationally. That is a sphere it will now concentrate upon, although it is an area much more difficult to convert to advantage. Thus while keeping our powder dry,  which must anyway be a part of considered prudence, it is the sphere of information warfare and local regional diplomacy in which India must prepare itself much better. The feasibility of China displaying a trailer of its cyber capability focused on a sphere of Indian military or non-military activity also remains a reality for which India must prepare itself. 2018 may well be the year when threats of war fighting may be overtaken by threats of cyber and information warfare. The last reminder: Bhutan will remain the key to the standoff and the retention by India of the current relationship will be the decisive factor. The last time, Indian strategic thinking hit the bull. If the basics are right it will do so again. The writer is former GOC of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps

Now a medical store, Sur and Co was once clinic of father of Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw

Sam Manekshaw (centre) at Sur and Co shop in 1973; and (right) its present owner Naveen Marwaha cleans the chair that was used by Manekshaw’s father Dr HFJ Manekshaw when he had a clinic here decades ago. Photos: Sunil kumar

Sam Manekshaw (centre) at Sur and Co shop in 1973; and (right) its present owner Naveen Marwaha cleans the chair that was used by Manekshaw’s father Dr HFJ Manekshaw when he had a clinic here decades ago. Photos: Sunil kumar

Divya Sharma

Tribune News Service

Amritsar, January 15

As the armed forces celebrated 70th Army Day across the country, the holy city has its own remarkable association with an Army man who played a major role in 1971 Indo-Pak war and holds the honour of being the first Field Marshal of the Indian Army. Field Marshal Sam Hormusji Framji Jamshedji Manekshaw was also known as Sam Bhadaur.A chemist shop here in the city — Sur and Co — situated at the Katra Ahulwalia area holds the memories of the Field Marshal through pictures of him and his parents. Presently a chemist shop, it was once clinic-cum-dispensary of Dr HFJ Manekshaw, father of Sam Bhadaur.At present, the shop belongs to Marwaha family. The warm relationship shared between the Maneshaw family and Devraj Marwaha, grandfather of Naveen Marwaha, who owns the chemist shop, is beyond words.Naveen Marwaha says, “My grandfather Devraj Marwaha used to assist Maneshaw Senior in his medical practice. My grandfather learnt each and everything from Dr Hormusji Framji Jamshedji Manekshaw. He shared a warm relationship with Sam Manekshaw, too. In fact, there was a regular exchange of letters between the Field Marshal and my grandfather. He paid a visit here in 1973. I have heard all good things about him.”The shop not only houses pictures, but also an antique chair of Dr HJ Manekshaw along with letters Sam Manekshaw wrote to Devraj Marwaha. The interior of the shop very much reflects the era gone by.Manekshaw was born in Amritsar on March 3, 1914. He did his schooling from PBN Senior Secondary School and took admission at Hindu College in 1931 and was part of the college for a year before moving for higher education. He visited the holy city in 1973.PK Sharma, Principal of Hindu College, said, “It is a matter of great honour that he was a student of this college.”The college has displayed his picture along with other distinguished alumni at a special corridor on the premises of the college. Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw was also awarded Padma Vibhushan for his services. He belonged to one of the first batches of the Indian Military Academy.

Army day observed

• An event was held at the Amritsar Cantonment on Monday to celebrate Army Day 2018. Major General DK Nautiyal, General Commanding Officer, Panther Division, laid the wreath at the Army Inspirational Park.

Though the recent local fidayeen action in Letapur could well be a one-off incident, it has caused enough concern. The localisation of the composition of suicide squads is something that experienced J&K hands have always feared.

Fidayeen action in J-K makes our units far more vulnerable.

Lt-Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (retd)ON the last day of 2017, three well-armed terrorists intruded the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) training complex at Letapur, near Avantipur on the Anantnag-Srinagar road in Kashmir. In the ensuing attempts to neutralise them, five CRPF jawans were martyred and all three terrorists were killed, but not before offering stiff resistance which included firing some armour-piercing munitions seen for the first time in the hands of terrorists. Post-operation analysis revealed that two of the three terrorists were local Kashmiris.  The death of Fardeen Ahmad Khanday, the 16-year-old son of a policeman, and Manzoor Baba, both locals from South Kashmir, revealed a new ploy by the Pakistani Masood Azhar terror group Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), under the guidance of the Pakistani proxy controllers: that of inducting local Kashmiris into fidayeen suicide squads. This is a phenomenon rarely seen in the 28-year-old proxy war.In J&K’s bleak proxy conflict scenario, the term fidayeen came into being in 1999. It is borrowed from the lexicon involving the vocabulary of the Palestinian resistance against the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and supposedly alludes to those”who sacrifice themselves in the name of god”. Before commenting on the entry of local terrorists into the ranks of a JeM fidayeen squad, the entire concept of fidayeen in J&K set up by proxy controllers of Pakistan needs to be outlined.It was in1999 (10 years after the proxy conflict commenced in J&K) that the situation in J&K really came to a head. Till then, terror in the state flowed and ebbed; from only local terrorists in 1989-90 to the introduction of foreign mercenaries, made available after the end of the Soviet-Afghan war, to the drying up of that pipeline in 1996 and thence the dominance of the Pakistani terrorists. In May 1999, a larger Pakistani strategy unfolded with the Kargil intrusion. It forced the redeployment of some formations of the Indian Army, deployed in the Valley for counter-terror operations (CT), to the Kargil sector, vacating the space in North Kashmir and segments of the South. In July 1999, infiltrated Pakistani elements along with a few SSG regulars, launched a series of small two- to four-men squads to sneak into the camps of the security forces (SF) and their bases through the weak perimeter security that existed. Some smart ruses were also used to target sentry posts employing effective disguise as Indian soldiers. The intruded elements inflicted as many casualties as they could and came equipped for the long haul and eventual death. Some high-profile actions included the targeting of the 15 Corps PRO offices near the Batwara entry gate, headquarters of Rashtriya Rifles (RR) units and sectors and civil institutions. In December 2000, the Srinagar airport was targeted by a six-man squad of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT); all six were killed at the gate along with six brave CRPF personnel. In all these cases, the fidayeen suicide squads comprised Pakistani terrorists infiltrated into the Valley or in the Jammu region. These actions did succeed temporarily in placing the Indian SF on the defensive with deployment of greater resources on the perimeter and entry point security of establishments. Counter-measures for these were partially found, but mostly resulted in limiting damage rather than preventing terrorist actions. Only in a few recorded cases had local Kashmiris, mostly acting alone, conducted such operations; a car bomb blast at the HQ 15 Corps gate and another against an Army bus in 2000 and 2003, respectively, were the handiwork of local elements. Fidayeen as a concept faded through the years of this millennium until it got revived after July 8, 2016, the fateful day in the history of the proxy war when BurhanWani, the young Kashmiri terrorist leader was killed. A strong counter-infiltration posture was adopted by the Indian Army 2004 onwards after the LoC fence came into being. This has progressively made it much more difficult for proxy controllers to induct trained and motivated Pakistanis willing to sacrifice their lives for the radical Islamic cause for which they have been brain washed. Besides these, suicide missions which intend to achieve something out of proportion in Kashmir need to be executed by extremely well-trained and equipped terrorists. They needed to be infiltrated from the PoK and kept secure in safe houses before being moved to the target area for execution. This could take many months with considerable risk, unlike in the Jammu-Kathua segment where actions could be much faster. The localisation of the composition of fidayeen suicide squads makes the missions easier but also requires religious fervour in the youth volunteers. It is something that experienced J&K hands have always feared. Such religious motivation is already evident in much of South Kashmir in particular, where radical Islam is known to have found root and mosque power is high. Training camps for local terrorists are known to exist well away from the surveillance of SF, in the higher reaches around Tral, Kulgam and Shupiyan. Local terrorists (LT) have been recruited, motivated and trained; their movement is far less difficult than that of FTs as they can merge and receive much greater local support. Although the Letapur fidayeen action could well be a one-off incident, it has caused enough concern. That is because with ready availability of LTs willing to be a part of fidayeen squads, the scope of multiple strikes enhances much like the campaign in 1999-2003. This and the employment of armour-piercing munitions would considerably transform the nature of conflict with VIP security and security of all establishments, HQs and units becoming far more vulnerable. Pakistan’s proxy conflict managers and controllers continue to improvise whenever necessary. The natural next step that can be perceived as part of potential devious planning by the Pakistan deep state could well be the preparation of human suicide bombing squads making use of highly radicalised and alienated young locals. This is the concept employed in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan. The experience of foreign armies has shown that for this threat usually there are least counters. It may be premature yet, but the Indian SF must be trained and geared to face such threats which the Pakistani deep state could bring to bear. The fidayeen threat from local youth will remain in place unless the counter-radicalisation process meets some success and alternatives are provided to wean away the youth from the path of self-destructive violence. Recent events have shown that some youth who picked up the gun did return to normal life after appeals by their parents. It had created hope and some cheer among the SF. However, the Letapur incident has brought in a new challenge for which social handling skills and greater outreach to parents and youth alike is necessary with the help of professional counsellors.

Tribune News Service

Srinagar, January 1

General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Northern Command Lt Gen D Anbu on Monday visited the Army units in north Kashmir to review the prevailing security situation, a spokesman said.During the visit, Lt General Anbu was briefed about the winter preparedness and measures taken to meet the challenges posed by weather.“The Northern COmmand chief interacted with the troops on the ground and conveyed New Year greetings to them. He complimented them for their determination and alertness in counter-terrorist and Line of Control operations in 2017,” the spokesman added.Lt General Anbu asked the soldiers to continue to face new challenges with utmost professionalism.

Earlier this week, the UN had ruled out any mediation effort on Kashmir. iStock photo

United Nations, January 27

Days after UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres ruled out any mediation effort between India and Pakistan, Islamabad’s top envoy to the world body raised the Kashmir issue during a UN Security Council debate on the Middle East.

As usual there were no takers for Maleeha Lodhi, the Permanent Representative of Pakistan to the UN, during the debate on the current volatile situation in the Middle East.

“Pakistan will continue to support the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinians, as indeed, people living under foreign occupation elsewhere as for example in Kashmir,” Lodhi said while participating in the Security Council discussion on Thursday.

“This esteemed body must live up to its responsibilities and ensure the implementation of its own resolutions on Palestine and other longstanding disputes such as Kashmir so that people of the world do not lose entire faith in the United Nations,” she said.

Earlier this week, the UN had ruled out any mediation effort on Kashmir and encouraged India and Pakistan to address all their outstanding issues through dialogue.

Relations between India and Pakistan have been strained recently following a series of attacks by Pakistan-based terror groups and incidents of ceasefire violations, causing casualties on both sides.

India is opposed to any third-party intervention in resolving the Kashmir issue while Pakistan has continuously sought mediation to sort out the differences. PTI

SCHOOLCHILDREN travelling in a bus are assaulted on the outskirts of the Capital. There’s violence on the streets. Cars are torched and windowpanes broken to express anger over a film that has been approved by the Censor Board and its screening allowed by the Supreme Court! This happened a couple of days before the magnificent parade that will mark the Republic Day, an occasion when we rejoice in our republican architecture and renew the commitments made in the Constitution. On the Republic Day, the country has much to celebrate. Democracy is now firmly ingrained in the DNA of the nation and we can take justifiable pride in being the largest working democratic system in the world. We have also developed into a modern economic power; we have empowered constitutional institutions that guarantee us the freedoms that we take for granted. For most of today’s Indians, it is hard to imagine the tough times that the nation faced soon after Independence. Now we have food security. Our economy is developing at a fair rate. We are proud of the achievements of our scientists and doctors, but not so much of our political class. All, however, is not well. Our educational institutions need to be fixed, as does our primary health system. The gap between the rich and the poor has regrettably increased, and sectarian fringe elements have found that they have the ability to disrupt lives — even take them — with impunity. This is certainly not the republic that the framers of the Constitution envisaged. As we revel in the military, geopolitical and economic achievements, we need to shine a light on our underbelly. The weft and warp of our social fabric is being strained, indeed, it shows some tears. Even as we march to the drumbeat of vikas, we need to keep in step with the spirit and intent of what the framers of our Constitution enshrined in the document: a vibrant democracy, an egalitarian social order, and a just and fair rule of law.