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RED SEA CRISIS: AN OMINOUS BEGINNING TO 2024!

Red Sea Crisis - GKToday
Supply chains begin 2024 impacted by Red Sea disruption - Commercial Risk

(Maj Gen Harvijay Singh, SM)

6 Jan 2024, REUTERS: Maersk reroutes all container vessels via Cape of Good Hope due to Red Sea disruptions.
…………Shippers across the world are switching away from the Red Sea – the shortest route from Asia to Europe via the
Suez Canal – after Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen stepped up attacks on vessels in the Gulf region to show
their support for Palestinian Islamist group Hamas fighting Israel in Gaza.
The trip around Africa adds about 10 days to journey time, more fuel and crew-time……… jacking up shipping costs.
Interestingly, larger container ships can carry up to 25,000 containers and the largest oil tankers up to 4 million
barrels of oil, equivalent to about 168 million gallons, whao.
Red Sea: pivotal zone for trade, transportation, and power play. Spanning from Suez Canal to Bab el Mandeb Strait,
Red Sea connects Mediterranean Sea to Indian Ocean – a crucial maritime corridor connecting continents. Its
proximity to key markets and natural resources enhances its importance in many ways.
Red Sea’s Cocktail of Geopolitics
• Saudi Arabia, with its long coastline along the Red Sea, plays a pivotal role in shaping regional dynamics.
• Egypt, controlling the Suez Canal, has strategic leverage over Red Sea’s northern access.
• Israel and its military capabilities keep geopolitics of the region well spiced up.
• Yemen is facing one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises as a civil war enters its eighth year.
• Somalia is in internal conflict and pirates prowling the Indian Ocean its byproduct.
• Eretria, one of the most closed and repressive countries in the world is in a simmering conflict with Ethiopia.
• A ‘cherry’ to this ‘Horn of Africa’ cocktail is Djibouti – a tiny country sitting astride the strategic Bab el Mandeb.
Interestingly, it has many military bases of the different friendly and conflicting/competing nations (USA,
China, Japan, Italy and France). Its strategic importance? Well, just location, location, location.
Evidently, there is much geopolitical manoeuvring by Global players in the Red Sea region:
• US claims it military presence to safeguard its interests and ensure the freedom of navigation.
• China, driven by its Belt and Road Initiative, seeks to expand presence and secure its economic interests.
• Russia, aiming to regain its influence as a major player has deepened its engagement.
In Mar 2015, a Saudi-led coalition – backed by USA – intervened militarily in Yemen to fight the Houthis, restore the
legitimate govt, and reverse growing Iranian influence. The Houthis are a movement of mostly Zaidi Shia Muslims.
Over the years, Houthi rebels have targeted strategic infrastructure across Saudi Arabia and UAE, including airports,
gas fields and oil tankers in the Red Sea, and, the coalition has retaliated with thousands of air attacks.
Could Russia be sponsoring the Heist? Well why not. Through its proxies Russia could be executing a ‘counterattack’
against the ‘sanctions’. If this counterattack was to succeed, it is likely to have serious consequences:
• On shipping supply chains, port congestions, container shortages and higher freight rates (higher rates of
insurance for those braving the Red Sea and higher operating costs for those choosing the Cape of Good
Hope route).
• Should Iran, which supports the Houthis want to continue to up the ante, it could exert pressure on the Strait
of Hormuz off its own coast, another key transit route, escalating supply chain disruptions further.
• The global economy is still recovering from the shocks of Covid and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Energy
importing regions will suffer the most especially Europe teetering on the verge of a recession. While the
Israel-Hamas war has yet to impact energy prices, Red Sea crisis might. Rising oil and gas prices will keep
inflation worldwide high.
Since the crisis in the Red Sea started, navies from various nations are being deployed to defend the shipping from

Houthi missiles and drones. As in Ukraine and other ongoing conflict zones, the battleships are deploying ultra-
expensive missiles to knock out cheap drones; a natural cost offset of asymmetric warfare.

Hamas’s belligerence in end 2023 and the ongoing Red Sea crisis make it quite clear that even at the beginning of
2024, nations are poorly postured to meet the growing irregular (both unpredictable and unequal) challenges.


EIGHT CADETS OF MRSAFPI JOIN SERVICES TRAINING ACADEMIES INCLUDING NDA

EIGHT CADETS OF MRSAFPI JOIN SERVICES TRAINING ACADEMIES INCLUDING NDA
  • 147 alumni of the Institute commissioned as officers in the Defence Services
  • Aman Arora wishes cadets all the very best for future

Chandigarh, January 4:

In the last two weeks, eight cadets of Maharaja Ranjit Singh Armed Forces Preparatory Institute (MRSAFPI), SAS Nagar (Mohali) have joined the National Defence Academy (NDA), Cadet Training Wings (CTWs) for the Technical Entry Scheme (TES) and Air Force Academy (AFA). With the induction of these eight cadets, a total of 226 cadets of the Institute have joined different Service Training Academies since the inception of the MRSAFPI.

Revealing this here today, Punjab Employment Generation, Skill Development and Training Minister Mr. Aman Arora said that as many as 147 alumni of this Institute have also been commissioned as officers in the Defence Services. With selection rate of 54.89%, the Institute has emerged as the most successful in the Country.

He said that five cadets, who joined National Defence Academy (NDA) includes Tejinderapal Singh, Ashmit, Lakshya Kumar Sharma, Vishvas Mittal and Moksh Saini, while two cadets – Saksham Malik and Mehtab Singh Sidhu secured their seats in Cadet Training Wings (CTWs) under the Technical Entry Scheme (TES) and Gursher Singh Cheema joined Air Force Academy (AFA) after receiving their joining letters.

Congratulating the cadets on joining the various academies to become defence officers, Mr. Aman Arora wished them the very best for training. Chief Minister S. Bhagwant Singh Mann led Punjab Government has been honing the youth, who aspire to join the defence services.

Director Maharaja Ranjit Singh Armed Forces Preparatory Institute Major General Ajay H. Chauhan, VSM (Retd.) exhorted the cadets to live up to their calling, be worthy sons of Punjab and true soldiers of the Nation. He also informed that the entrance examination for the new course (14th Course) is scheduled to be held on January 14, 2024 for which over 4100 candidates have applied, which is a record in itself.


Night curfew imposed along border in Samba

Order to remain in force for 60 days

Night curfew imposed along border in Samba

Our Correspondent

Jammu, January 8

Night curfew has been imposed along the International Border (IB) in Jammu and Kashmir’s Samba district to ensure better area domination by BSF troops and to foil any nefarious activities close to the borderline.

The Samba administration has ordered that no person or group of persons will move in area up to 1 Km along the IB in the district from 10 pm to 6 am.

The step was taken to prevent cross-border infiltration and smuggling of weapons through drones in the extreme foggy weather conditions prevailing along the Indo-Pak border line, said the order issued by District Magistrate Abhishek Sharma.

The instruction was issued following a meeting of the district-level standing committee where authorities of the BSF suggested the imposition of a daily night curfew on a one kilometre long strip from the IB, enabling them to perform their duties more effectively, the order said.

“It is felt by the district administration that it is expedient that the movement of people in border areas is regulated so that there is better area domination by BSF in border areas and nefarious designs of forces inimical to Indian security are subverted,” the DM said in the order.

“This order shall come into force with immediate effect and shall remain in force for a period of sixty days from the date of its issuance, if not withdrawn/rescinded earlier” the order read.


4 new NCC units to be raised in J&K, Ladakh

4 new NCC units to be raised in J&K, Ladakh

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has approved a proposal to raise four more National Cadet Corps (NCC) Units – three Jammu & Kashmir and one Ladakh.

The approval includes one mixed (Boys & Girls) Army Battalion each at Udhampur, Kupwara and one Air Squadron at Udhampur. One Army NCC battalion for boys and girls has been okayed for Kargil Ladakh.

In addition to the existing 27,870 cadets, the strength in Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh will increase by 12,860, which is a 46.1% rise, the Ministry of Defence said.

Currently, the NCC Directorate has two group headquarters, with a total of 10 NCC Units, covering the three geographical regions — Jammu and Kashmir and Ladak


A Dhaka trip down memory lane

A Dhaka trip down memory lane

Col HP Singh (Retd)

LAST month, my octogenarian parents visited Dhaka under the Victory Day exchange programme for 1971 war veterans. ‘Mukti Joddhas’ (the guerrilla army of freedom fighters, then known as the Mukti Bahini) embarked upon a reciprocal journey to Kolkata to commemorate the Bangladesh liberation war. Having missed the opportunity to attend the golden jubilee of the creation of Bangladesh in 2021, my parents were excited when they got the invite this time.

On their return, they were profoundly appreciative of the hospitality extended to them by their hosts. When the Indian passengers on board a Biman plane reached Dhaka, they were welcomed by a reception party led by the General Officer Commanding, Dhaka logistics area, at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport. The Bangladesh President hosted the delegates in his presidential palace, where Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina interacted with them warmly.

The visit to the museum dedicated to former President Sheikh Mujibur Rahman (popularly called ‘Bangabandhu’) was a very touching experience for them. The place was originally the house where Mujibur was assassinated along with most of his family members in a military coup in 1975. ‘Two of his daughters, including the current Prime Minister, survived the tragedy as they were in West Germany,’ my father told his curious grandchildren.

During a banquet, the Bangladesh army chief delivered a speech expressing gratitude to the Indian armed forces for their triumphant collaboration in 1971. It was a celebration of a shared victory, remembering the sacrifices made by soldiers. The aged ‘Mukti Joddhas’, too, hosted the delegation, exchanging tales of valour. ‘I was part of history. I witnessed the surrender ceremony,’ father told the hosts.

A leisurely cruise on the Padma river was the high point of their visit, offering a serene breather from the official engagements. ‘Before our departure, they showered us with so many goodies that we had to request for extra bags to carry them home,’ mother said, feeling relieved that she didn’t have to go shopping in the capital city.

‘What is your impression of their army?’ I asked father. ‘I did not see a single soldier who was overweight or old. Many of the liaison officers were women. That’s unusual for an Islamic country,’ he said.

‘I had cursed my stars when your father had to leave me for the impending war, with you in my womb,’ mother said. ‘But after this trip, I feel it was well worth the anxiety and pain to see this day,’ she added. I am glad that in the evening of their lives, they were able to travel to the country they had longed to visit together.


How ambitious India fares in catching up with China

China is facing economic uncertainty, given the crisis in the real estate sector, which accounts for 35 per cent of its economy.

How ambitious India fares in catching up with China

Maj Gen Ashok K Mehta (Retd)

Military Commentator

THE External Affairs Ministry’s latest annual report describes relations with China as “not normal”; in fact, they are adversarial. The government will keep China blanked out, even though for the foreseeable future, it will remain a perennial rival, competitor and threat. Significantly, Global Times, a state-run Chinese newspaper, recently published an opinion piece praising India’s strategic confidence and remarkable achievements in recent years. The article, written by Zhang Jiadong, Director of the Centre for South Asian Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai, also acknowledged India’s economic growth, improvements in urban governance and a shift in attitude towards international relations, notably with China. The opinion piece lauded India’s foreign policy under Prime Minister Modi, highlighting the nation’s multi-alignment approach and bolstering ties with major global powers such as the US, Japan and Russia, while displaying a nuanced stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

A two-decade-old comparative study by the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), New Delhi, titled ‘Will India Catch Up With China?’, had noted: a) both will compete for resources and market influence; b) it’s unlikely that they will again become mortal enemies; c) likelihood of war and conflict minimal; and d) India must close the economic gap. The CPA quoted Goldman Sachs’ projection that if India recorded a growth rate of 8 to 9 per cent, it could catch up with China by 2050. In its own forecast, the CPA says that it is not a matter of catching up with the growth rate but how to come abreast in terms of the GDP, for which India must grow 9 to 11 per cent, which will not be easy due to poverty and low per capita income even by 2050.

A Foreign Policy article in 2003 had enquired, ‘Can India overtake China?’ and concluded that India might edge past China in the future, but the CPA gave it a low probability. Recent projections of an enduring political stability are very promising.

India is chasing China’s economy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged that in his third term, India will be the third largest economy after the US and China. He also said that India will be a developed country (read catch up with China) by 2047. This is akin to a hop, skip and jump to ensure a minimal growth of 9-11 per cent.

China is facing economic uncertainty, given the crisis in the real estate sector, which accounts for 35 per cent of its economy; however, its economy has tripled since 2008. Although Xi Jinping is virtually the President for life, his fetish for sovereignty and national security has led to political turbulence, evident in the sacking last year of a foreign minister, defence minister and nine Generals — five from the strategic Rocket Forces, who were lawmakers.

Alfredo Montufar, head of Geopolitical Risk, Beijing, said last September in Mumbai that China’s perception in the developed world is the lowest, courtesy its wolf-warrior diplomacy. He noted that China was going into the below-potential growth period from 6.5 per cent in 2023 to 3.5 per cent in 2030 and 1 per cent in 2050.

So, in the catch-up game — China catching up with the US, India with China, Pakistan with India, and so on — are there political, diplomatic and military expedients in the India-China matrix available to India to fix the asymmetries and find equalisers? That is the billion-dollar question.

China’s economy and per capita income are six times larger than India’s; its defence spending is over three times of what India spends on defence.

Clearly, the CPA report of 2003 was off target in its India-China forecast of the minimal likelihood of war and conflict and the unlikelihood of both becoming mortal enemies again.

A report prepared in 2022 by the China Study Group, New Delhi, said Indians had replaced Americans as the people whom the Chinese hated the most. The Galwan clash, after four decades of peace on the LAC, ended with unprecedented Indian casualties and officers and soldiers taken captive by the PLA without the use of firearms. Later, Operation Snow Leopard exposed the frail civil-military relations and abrogation by the political executive of higher direction and guidance of war when the two armies were on the ‘brink of war’.

India’s trade deficit with China was $101 billion last year. Twenty rounds of military commanders’ talks and several bouts of politico-military diplomatic parleys have made China look taller and thrown overboard the theory that trade and talks reduce friction and facilitate conflict resolution. At a recent seminar that I convened in New Delhi, ‘Catch Up To China: On Fixing Asymmetries and Finding Equalisers’, no innovative solutions were offered due to the fear of annoying China and escalating the conflict. There were no buyers for conducting any game-changing operation similar to Snow Leopard on land or at sea or exploiting China’s Malacca dilemma.

That India will need to spend a minimum 5 per cent of the GDP on defence to create deterrence against China within a decade was highlighted, as also ensuring that the economy grows by 8-9 per cent to just close the gap with China by 2030. Diffidence and deference have to yield to determination.


Fauda’ star Idan Amedi injured in Gaza while fighting Hamas terrorists

'Fauda' star Idan Amedi injured in Gaza while fighting Hamas terrorists

IANS

Tel Aviv, January 9

Idan Amedi, one of the popular stars of web series, ‘Fauda’, which is a big hit on the OTT platform Netflix, and a renowned singer in Israel with millions of followers on YouTube, is seriously injured in Gaza while fighting Hamas terrorists.

The family of Amedi announced the news of his injury on Monday evening.

The Fauda star was fighting in the Israel Defence Forces’ (IDF) counter-terrorism unit and was injured while fighting in the strip.

Amedi was fighting in the counter-terrorism unit as a reservist since the war began immediately after the Hamas rampage on October 7.

He has documented moments from the military service on his Instagram account and had said, “This is not a scene from ‘Fauda’, this is real life.”

He also added that he and his fellow soldiers were motivated by their concern for the victims of Hamas’ October 7 massacre.

“May God and us avenge their blood,” Amedi said.

He joined the hit web series ‘Fauda’, and portrays his role as Sagi, a member of the counter-terrorism unit headed by Doron (played by actor Lior Raz).


War hero and Olympic champion

War hero and Olympic champion

Veronica Kaushik

Recipient of Vir Chakra for bravery in the 1962 war and a member of the Indian hockey teams that won gold medals in the 1956 and 1964 Olympics, Lt Col Haripal Kaushik (retd) passed away in Jalandhar in 2018. A chapter in a new book, ‘Camouflaged: Forgotten Stories from Battlefields’ by Probal Dasgupta (Juggernaut), recalls his inspirational story. His daughter Veronica Kaushik pays a tribute…

To the world, my father was a war hero and an Olympic champion. Everyone who knew him remembers him as a humble, kind-hearted, yet strong-willed, person. To me, he was the sweetest father — in fact, after my mother passed away, he gave me the love of both parents.

Belonging to Khusropur village close to Jalandhar, my father saw great highs and terrible lows in his life, but he never lost his humility, sincerity and sense of humour. He never got angry with anyone, never raised his voice.

He had such a commanding personality that just one look from him would make you realise he was displeased about something. But he had a helpful nature and was very social. He never missed any opportunity to meet people. He was a great conversationalist — loved telling jokes and stories, and he used to read endlessly.

My father believed in commanding respect by being respectful to others. That trait never left him throughout his hockey days, or when he served in the Army (having retired as Lt Colonel from 1 Sikh Regiment), or when he became the general manager at a sugar mill in Phagwara and helped revive the company. All his colleagues adored and respected him.

Despite all his accomplishments in different fields, his true love was hockey. In his childhood, he loved playing the sport and would mostly be in the field and never in class. His teacher used to say to him, ‘Haripal, yaa taa hockey khed lai, yaa class laa leya kar (either play hockey or come to class).’ He used to smile while telling me this anecdote.

He never lost that dedication towards the game. He used to tell me that his shoulder would often get dislocated while playing. He would just get off the field, set his shoulder back himself and start playing again. He won two Olympic gold medals (Melbourne in 1956 and Tokyo in 1964) and an Asian Games title, but among his teammates and juniors, he is remembered for being an unselfish player. He would never show off and always pass the ball. Another thing that everyone told me about him was that he was always smiling on the hockey field and was never disheartened by any situation.

It was his resolve that helped him survive the harsh terrain and biting cold for days after an enemy ambush during the 1962 Sino-Indian war. He told me that they had to even eat snakes to survive. He was awarded the Vir Chakra. But it was a terrible time for him and he rarely spoke about the war. Two years later, he was part of the hockey team that won the Olympic gold and it probably helped heal the wounds. Though I don’t think that it was something one could forget, he never showed any signs of trauma. He never liked to dwell on the past, and through all his ups and downs, he lived a contented life. (As told to Indervir Singh)


Myanmar fencing

Ending Free Movement Regime a pragmatic step

Myanmar fencing

THE 1,643-km border between India and Myanmar runs through four northeastern states. The mutually agreed Free Movement Regime (FMR) allows people residing on either side of the border to venture 16 km into each other’s territory without a visa. Members of the hill tribes can cross over on production of a border pass with one-year validity and stay for up to two weeks. The plan to scrap the arrangement and fence the border comes late in the day, but bears the stamp of inevitability. The Centre’s decision is aimed at stopping the misuse of FMR by insurgent groups and putting the brakes on the influx of illegal immigrants. Curbing the cross-border narcotics trade, fuelled by the proliferation of poppy cultivation on the Indian side, would be a challenging task.

The unfenced border is shared by Manipur (398 km), Arunachal Pradesh (520 km), Nagaland (215 km) and Mizoram (510 km). Though Manipur suspended the FMR in 2020, unregulated migration through the porous border is cited as a factor for the ethnic violence in the state. Smart fencing is expected to tighten controls. Mizoram has seen an influx of anti-junta rebels since the military coup in Myanmar in 2021. The coup has created a breeding ground for armed insurgent groups and the influx of refugees is believed to have worsened the volatile situation in Manipur. India has already conveyed to Myanmar its anxieties over the spillover of the simmering crisis in the neighbourhood.

As the experience in Punjab and J&K has shown, fencing alone cannot be a foolproof mechanism to secure borders. In view of the huge drug and weapon hauls, the Centre is in the process of deploying an indigenously developed anti-drone system along the entire western border. Technology demonstrators are being run on a pilot basis. A judicious mix of various methods can improve border surveillance.


Tech, combatants helped Indian Navy secure merchant vessel; hunt on for pirates

On Thursday, 5-6 pirates had boarded the Liberian-flagged vessel

Tech, combatants helped Indian Navy secure merchant vessel; hunt on for pirates

Latest technology coupled with Indian military philosophy of having combatants on ground helped the Indian Navy secure merchant vessel MV Lila Norfolk and its 21 crew in an operation in the middle of the Arabian Sea yesterday.

A day after the operation, Indian naval forces investigated suspected vessels in the north Arabian Sea to track down pirates who could have been involved in the attempted hijack of the merchant vessel.

The power and propulsion of merchant vessel was restored with help from crew of Indian Navy warship INS Chennai around 3 am on Saturday. “The vessel is now on its way to Khalifa Bin Salman Port in Bahrain and INS Chennai is back to its anti-piracy duties,” a Navy official said.

INS Chennai is equipped with adequate arms and manpower to meet exigencies at sea, say sources in the Navy. Such warships have teams of engineers and complements of marine commandos (MARCOS) with requisite gear, arms and specialised fast-moving boats.

INS Chennai’s marine commandos boarded the vessel and undertook thorough sanitisation of the upper decks, machinery compartments and living spaces.

Forceful warnings by the naval aircraft to the vessel and likely interception by the warship compelled the pirates to escape, the Navy said.

The crew, including 15 Indians, had followed the standard operating procedure and locked themselves in a strong room of the vessel. The strong room is resistant to bullet and explosives.

Strong rooms in modern merchant vessels often come equipped with steering control of the ship. So even when the pirates boarded MV Lila Norfolk and reached the bridge — the traditional control centre of the ship — on the main deck, they did not have controls to steer it.

On Thursday, 5-6 pirates had boarded the Liberian-flagged vessel. Information about the attack, some 850 km from Africa’s Somalian coast, was sent to the UK Maritime Trade Organisation. The Indian Navy was informed around 7.45 pm the same day. A Boeing P8I surveillance plane of the Navy was despatched and it flew over the besieged vessel in the early hours of Friday, establishing radio contact with the ship. INS Chennai, on anti-piracy patrol duties in the Gulf of Aden, 720 km north of the attack, was asked to alter course. It reached the merchant vessel around 3.15 pm on Friday and sent a helicopter followed by a team of commandos using a boat.