Sanjha Morcha

Is Pakistan outsourcing its water security to China?by LT GEN PRAMOD GROVER (RETD)

  • The views expressed are his personal)

As water is becoming an existential issue for Pakistan, it has emerged as a cause of major concern between India and Pakistan. Unable to manage and utilise its water resources efficiently, Islamabad misses no opportunity to attribute its water woes to Indian action in developing its water potential of the western rivers.

Pakistan is facing a grim situation regarding its fast depleting fresh water resources. The per capita water availability in Pakistan has decreased by over 406% from 5,260 cubic metres in 1951 to 1,038 cubic metres in 2010, just marginally above the 1,000 cubic metres per person threshold value under the global criteria. By 2020, the water availability in Pakistan would plummet to 877 cubic meters per annum. In such a scenario, its food security is in danger.

INDIA NOT TO BLAME FOR PAK WATER SCARCITY

 Pakistan has been blaming India’s hydropower projects on the western rivers for water scarcity. But, that doesn’t hold water. Broadly, the problems may be attributed to Pakistan having drawn limited benefit of India’s generosity, even as it has been receiving more than its authorised share in the past 56 years. A case in point is the limited dam storage of just 15.9 million acre feet (MAF) developed by Pakistan so far at Tarbela, Mangala and Chasma. This gets further reduced (by about 25%) on account of excessive sedimentation. Pakistan thus has water storage capacity just for 30 days against the minimum requirement of 120 days.

Post-September 2016, Pakistan has been raising the issue of water security at international forums and calling it “a corollary to the unresolved issue of Kashmir”. But Pakistan’s case before the World Bank, a facilitator of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), against the construction of Kishanganga and Ratle hydropower plants is a mere rhetoric. While the construction of Kishanganga project stands approved by the International Court of Arbitration, Ratle is a run-of-the river project permitted under the parameters of the IWT.

The key question: Why is Pakistan approaching various world forums? Is it an issue that has an impact on Pakistan, or is it its covert plan to act on behalf of China and in turn draw benefit?

INDIA NEEDS MORE POWER FOR GROWTH

The big picture indicates that Chinese are behind the present defiant stance of Pakistan. India is a power deficient nation. To draw benefit of various economic programmes, including ‘Make in India’, we need additional power. Our aim thus is to draw benefit of hydropower through projects on the western rivers as India is exploiting only one-sixth of its potential.

One of India’s economic growth indicators is that it has become number one destination for FDI surpassing China. The neighbouring country (China) apparently plans to deny us the availability of additional power for setting up industrial base. So, China has brought Pakistan at the forefront to raise objections to hydropower projects on western rivers. China thus plans to return this favour by providing water security to Pakistan.

ROW OVER DIAMER-BHASHA DAM

Pakistan has requested China to undertake construction of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam on the Indus in Gilgit-Baltistan. The proposed 4,500MW hydropower plant would eliminate about half of Pakistan’s power shortfall and irrigate millions of acres of parched farmland. The presence of Chinese elements in Pakistan occupied Kashmir will provide additional security to Pakistan. Incidentally, due to opposition by India, both the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have in the past refused to lend money. To formalise this understanding, a decision was taken during the meeting of the Joint Cooperation Committee of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to include water security to Pakistan as part of CPEC projects.

RAISE OBJECTION TO CHINESE PRESENCE

From India’s perspective, inclusion of water security into CPEC is a political choice for Pakistan and China, though the issue does not fall within the mandate of the CPEC. New Delhi needs to understand the nuances of this action by Pakistan and China in PoK and raise objection to the Chinese presence. To counter Pakistan’s rhetoric against Kishanganga and Ratle, we must highlight that run-of-the-river dams such as Baglihar consume nothing as water must flow to run turbines. Such a dam delays a river with no consequential effect on the quantity of water reaching Pakistan.

CHINA PLANS TO DENY INDIA AVAILABILITY OF ADDITIONAL POWER FOR SETTING UP INDUSTRIAL BASE AND THUS HAMPER ITS ECONOMIC GROWTH

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    groverp999@gmail.com (The writer is an expert on the Indus Water Treaty. The views expressed are his personal)