Holland is such a beautiful country that it is difficult to associate anything negative with it. To even transit through Europe to the trans-Atlantic I would always prefer a few hours at Amsterdam airport for a change over halt. That positive image of the country, however, was under apparent threat as it went to the polls on Wednesday, Mar 15.  What was expected was a potential demonstration of what may happen to Europe in the coming year or the near future; the feasibility of political  parties adhering to the Far Right ideology, across nations, coming to power riding on the back of perceptibly increasing sentiments against immigrants, particularly Muslims. In addition an apparently emerging consensus against the concept of the European Union on the basis of increasing Nationalist ideology seemed to be on the cards.   The results have surprised many as Prime Minister Mark Rutte romped home successful but his Centre Right VVD party lost eight seats in the bargain. The Far Right Wing leader, Geert Wilders and his PVV party, mostly expected to garner a better standing came out second but did gain marginally from the third place that his party earlier occupied. For the well informed, it is premature to surmise anything from the elections. The real measure of the move of Far Right ideology into European politics will come once we have the results of the German and French elections later this year. UK was the trend setter but that was more specifically about the European Union and UK’s exit (Brexit), not necessarily a referendum on immigration and Islam. The arrival of President Trump, seen as an ideological turnaround, is also still not making enough sense to political pundits the world over.

For the mildly less informed there may be a need to delve a little deeper into the background which needn’t go as far as 1789, when France, Europe and the world received the first great ideological message of the proletariat; Liberty, Equality and Fraternity. Politics and ideology of the Right and the Left wing have never been fully identified and canned into compartments. The interplay has seen attempted demarcation but progressively this has changed on the basis of the order of international politics and ideologies.  In Europe’s current context it is more a competition between Centre Right and Far Right than anything to do with Left Wing. It is safer to assume that the Centre Right constitutes less isolationism, more liberalism and greater tolerance towards religious radicalism, though not necessarily linked to violent extremism and appeasement of immigrants. The Far Right which has a more populist approach today generally focuses against immigration and Islam while also harping on narrow nationalism and the need to dismantle the European Union; anti-globalization being the natural fallout.

In this election in Holland there were as many as 28 political parties in the fray leaving much to the post-election coalition politics but the significance does not lie in the details of Dutch politics; more in the agenda.  Geert Wilders’ one-page election manifesto included pledges to close borders to immigrants from Muslim nations, shutter mosques and ban the Koran, as well as to take the Netherlands out of the European Union. Where did this agenda come from?

It is important to know that post World War II liberal ideology proliferated as a result of the backlash against radical Right Wing ideas associated with the Axis powers. A country such as Turkey, the core center of the Ottoman Empire, Islam’s longest standing Caliphate, had in 1923 already been converted to the  liberal and secular model after the father of modern Turkey, Kemal Ata Turk (Mustafa Kemal) decided to  shun Islamism  and take the country closer to Europe. Western Europe’s progress after 1945 was also based upon immigration, especially from former colonies of the colonial powers to make up for the huge need for labor and many other lower end jobs. Germany got much of its immigrants from Turkey. The secular and integrative model was much in evidence by one look at the various football teams of European nations participating in the World Cup football tournament. The secular and liberal model worked well although racism never ever ended and demarcation of the types of jobs in the job market ensured it remained alive. Signs of things to come and strain in relationships within nations began to emerge once demographics started to be perceived as threats to security of the original inhabitants; the sons of the soil. Thus we had an Enoch Powell in Britain fuming against immigrants as early as the Seventies. In France, in particular the immigration from the Franco-phonic parts of the Maghreb continued through the Eighties.

Post 1989 things began to change, even as liberalism took greater hold, globalization became the buzz word, the European Union emerged strongly and the trends towards human rights became a political compulsion. However, the growth of Islamism and anti-West (read anti developed world) increased progressively almost in tandem. Violent extremism which accompanied it had an unnerving effect in the West. Post 9/11 and the series of violent incidents in Europe the seeds of cultural and faith based antipathy were sown and the effect was immediately felt by immigrants. Issues such as hijab, minarets and other cultural symbols enhanced the standoff. Disdain for immigrants took greater shape even as the need for labor increased. The intent of the Islamists was always to cause mayhem, disruption and turbulence in the Western societies and economies. The immediate effect was increasing struggle between the Liberals and the creeping ideologues of the Far Right. That is how the politics of Europe and to a great extent the US changed.

2014 is just recent times and perhaps not even within range of being termed history. Yet, it was a defining year. The emergence of ISIS (Daesh), the slick social media based propaganda, the attraction of western fighters to the battle arena, the employment of Lone Wolves in Europe and the US and larger terror attacks, changed the attitude of the sons of the soil. Anti-Islamism came to the fore, as also Nationalism, as a throwback from the events of 2014-16. It all happened at break neck speed. It was evident that Far Right ideology was taking shape faster than imagined and its grain was finding favor most in the US, France and UK with some strains in Germany too. It was the surge of human migration from the battle zones of West Asia and some of the failing states of North Africa which proved to be last straw. Much of 2016 witnessed barbed wire fences across national boundaries in Europe; the same nations which first believed in open borders. It strengthened the hands of the Far Right even further as nations squabbled on quotas of immigrants to be admitted and the general treatment to be meted out to them. That is where the current status is.

The emergence of Trumpism and Brexit have both been viewed as symbols of success of the Far Right, although they are not necessarily in congruence in ideological terms. 2017 has democratic electoral processes lined up in France and Germany among many other countries. All eyes were on Holland for the current elections which have somehow proven that the Far Right may have gained but not as substantially as was expected. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the champion of the Centre Right and rights of immigrants is possibly seeking re-election in a personal vindication of her open door policy on immigrants.   Far Right party the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has made gains in the wake of the migrant crisis and Brexit victory in the UK. However, events through to Sep 2017 when the German federal election takes place will decide her future and perhaps that of Europe. Prior to that France’s presidential election in April 2017 will attract much attention and is being viewed as one of the major political risks in Europe this year. Marine Le Pen of the anti-European Union National Front leader is the Far Right populist leader on the lines of Geert Wilders.

So Brexit, Trump and now Rutte (Holland) in progression do not give enough of what is in store ideologically in Europe. Perhaps France and Germany may give clearer indications. An event which cannot be forgotten in the rush of looking at the US and West Europe is the fact that Turkey too has a referendum lined up in Apr 2017. It’s a referendum for enhanced powers to Erdogan through conversion to a presidential system and would be counted as a vote for his ideology of taking Turkey on the opposite path from liberal secularism. Will that too have an impact on the coming elections in Europe is something that analysts will watch with much interest.