Monthly Archives: August 2018

Ajay Banerjee
Tribune News Service
Riyadh, October 31

In a turn of events that could add to India’s diplomatic heft in West Asia and the Arab world, India and Saudi Arabia will do their first-ever joint naval exercise next year.

The two countries are working to have a white shipping information-sharing agreement and New Delhi is looking to sell military-grade vehicles and equipment to Saudi Arabia.

The two sides have had discussions on how the growing Indian defence industry can be roped in to provide the needs of Saudi Arabia. A delegation of Indian industry that included Bharat Forge, Ashok Leyland and L&T among others has been hosted in the Kingdom in the recent past.

The General Authority of Military Industry has visited India. “Initial talks, have been conducted to see what all cooperation is possible,” sources on the Indian side said.

Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest importer of weapons and equipment. Data released in March 2019 by Swedish think-tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, titled ‘Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2018’ says: “Saudi Arabia imported 12 per cent of all global arms sales during the period 2014-2018.”

Global arms sales are estimated close to US $ 280 billion-290 billion. There are no data on countries like China and North Korea, hence the estimation.

US supplied 68 per cent of these weapons, arms and platforms, followed by the UK at 16 per cent and France at 4.3 per cent, respectively. India itself is the second largest importer but has ambitions of export.

The sharing of information about all cargo vessels in Saudi Arabian waters would entail the Indian Navy getting a wider picture to its west. New Delhi has such agreements with countries to its east and also the west. Information is then collated at the information fusion centre at Gurugram and manned by the Indian Navy.

The naval exercise will be a path-breaker. It’s the first such engagement; the complexity and scope would be decided at a meeting in December, sources said.

For the Indian Navy, the northern parts of the Arabian Sea are important. Since 2008, Indian naval warships have been patrolling the waters off the Gulf of Aden (south of the Arabian Peninsula) as part of its anti-piracy patrol. In June-July this year, naval warships escorted dozens of Indian-flagged cargo and crude vessels through the Persian Gulf when the Iran-US tensions flared up after the Iranians allegedly shot down a US drone. The Indian Navy already has permission to use the facilities at Duqm port in Oman located on the southern side of the Arabian Peninsula.

Successive Indian navy chiefs have defined India’s ‘area of interest’ between Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Malacca–that means largely the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

The Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca are the world’s busiest shipping choke points, carrying crude oil and cargo.

Almost 200 sorties were flown in 10 days before August 5, when Article 370 was abrogated, for airlifting 12,000-odd personnel to Srinagar, once again. Military power is an insurance policy. It is a huge mandatory expenditure to provide the shield for economic progress and to prevent war, an event that is many times costlier and puts a country back by many decades.

Air Vice-Marshal Manmohan Bahadur (retd)
Defence Commentator

Seventy-two years back, a daring airlift by the fledgling Indian Air Force got India’s map the crown it has depicted ever since. On October 27, 1947, with Pakistani raiders knocking at Srinagar’s door, a three-aircraft Dakota formation of No. 12 Squadron, the only IAF transport squadron then, led by Wing Commander KL Bhatia brought in the lead element of the Indian Army’s 1 Sikh Regiment to the Valley. The airlift, which was to continue for around a year, was ably supported by civilian Dakotas, whose bravery has gone unsung, and cemented the accession of J&K to India.

It needs a little prodding to remember that when the internal map of India is re-drawn on October 31 with the creation of the union territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, the IAF would have played a major part in that too by its airlifting of Central police personnel to ensure security, a la the 1947 airlift. Almost 200 sorties were flown in 10 days before August 5, when Article 370 was abrogated, for airlifting 12,000 odd personnel to Srinagar, once again.

This capability has taken decades to build and it is essential because India reboots to the election mode every now and then and that costs money. The important role played by the nation’s military power back-up in internal governance and foreign policy discourse gets its due — the Indian military’s bite has to remain sharp. 

Military power is an insurance policy. It is a huge mandatory expenditure to provide the shield for economic progress and to prevent war, an event that is many times costlier and puts a country back by many decades, especially one with limited resources. And if there is a fall in GDP numbers and an economic slowdown, the axe usually falls on the military which is told to tighten its belt. This starts happening around the middle of the financial year, which, in India, is around now.

The belt, however, can be tightened only so much and no more, for when it starts affecting capability, the words of Le Comte de Guibert, an 18th century French General, need recounting. He had said, “To declaim against war is to beat the air with vain sounds, for ambitious rulers will certainly not be restrained by such means. But what may result is to extinguish little by little the military spirit and some day to deliver up one’s own nation, softened and disarmed, or badly armed, to the yoke of warlike nations which may be less civilised but which have more judgment and prudence.”

So, even as the financial ministry juggles numbers of allotment to various ministries in the prevalent economic slowdown, as is its wont, it needs to be reminded of historian Paul Kennedy’s deeply researched magnum opus, The Rise and Fall of Great Powers. Paul Kennedy wrote that as a nation’s power grows, it has to go offshore for resources, adding further that the history of the past 500 years shows that conflict inevitably follows.

And that is what one is witnessing as both China and India move outward in their spheres of interest. Indian Air Force planners, with the support of the government, have had the foresight to build up transport and helicopter fleets to reach a capability where India can declare itself to be a regional Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) provider. For sure, this competency has come about with excellent sea-lift capability that the Indian Navy possesses.

However, the oft-bandied term, by the uninitiated in military affairs,  that India is looked up in the region as being a net security provider, is still some distance away. It is vital that the hard power element, which along with the substantial soft power HADR capability serves as a bulwark for India’s foreign policy initiatives, is not starved of funds. In these times of a financial crunch, as the mandarins of North Block look for monies to be diverted to the social and economic sectors, any reduction in the already meagre defence budget would be disastrous for the nation’s hard power element and adversely affect the capability plans of the Services.

The Service Chiefs, without exception, have put their faith in the indigenous industry. The Army Chief has said that the “next war would be fought and won with indigenous weapon systems.” The IAF Chief has stopped the further import of Pilatus trainers and decided that HAL’s HTT-40 basic trainer aircraft would be in its inventory. Additionally, he minced no words in affirming that the Air Force was looking towards HAL and DRDO for equipping it with the Tejas MK1A, MK2 and AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft). The Naval Chief has reiterated his faith in indigenous ship design and construction and argued for more funds for capability build-up — a refrain from the other two Chiefs too.

Funds will always be a constraint, else why the ‘guns versus butter’ debate of many a century? Wars cannot be fought and won on bravado and ‘refrains’. Money has to be found from somewhere to encourage indigenous defence R&D and the private industry which is slowly showing promise. The order books of Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs) are already overflowing and alternative lines of manufacturing need to flourish if the indigenisation thrust of the Service Chiefs is to be met — else imports would have to be resorted to. Just as successive governments have supported the DPSUs, it’s time private players also get that assured support, in terms of policies and funds.

It finally comes down to funds — and it is vital that, just as the IAF’s airlift capability has been diligently built up, its hard power element, as that of the other two Services too, also gets the attention it deserves. Capability development takes decades and the two Srinagar airlifts, seven decades apart, attest to that.

Our Correspondent

Rajouri, October 28

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday like every year celebrated Diwali with soldiers at the headquarters(HQs) of the Army Ace of Spades Division at Rajouri in J&K.

Accompanied by General Bipin Rawat, Army Chief, the Prime Minister flew to Rajouri and spent more than two hours at the headquarters where he interacted with the senior Army Commanders deployed in Rajouri and Poonch district.

Immediately after landing at Rajouri, the Prime Minister paid homage to martyrs of Rajouri and Poonch districts, including civilians at Hall of Fame. He termed it ‘Parakram Bhoomi, Prerna Bhoomi, Paavan Bhoomi’.

Before the arrival of the Prime Minister, Pakistan army violated cease fire in the Sunderbani Sector in the district in which Lance Naik Suresh Kumar was injured.

The Prime Minister addressed about 1,000 soldiers gathered at Raina stadium inside the Division HQs and praised the soldiers for their valour that led the government to take impossible decisions.The Prime Minister spoke on surgical strikes by the Army inside PoK following Pulwama attack, in which 49 CRPF personnel had sacrificed their lives.

He also spoke on the necessity of abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35 A provisions. “Everybody wants to celebrate Diwali with their family members and I am here to celebrate Diwali with my family of brave soldiers” said the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister expressed gratitude to the brave soldiers on behalf of the people of the country in safeguarding the national borders and said, “A large number of people are paying homage to the martyrs at the National War Memorial”.

He also spoke about the steps taken by his government for the welfare of soldiers.“Though we are away from our families but we are happy and feel proud that we are celebrating Diwali with the Prime Minister” said Moen Ahamed, a soldier.

A JCO thanked the people of the country for expressing their gratitude towards the Indian soldiers through the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister exchanged Diwali greetings and sweets with the soldiers deployed on the border.“While interacting with our soldiers, I thanked them on behalf of the people of India for their monumental service. Their vigilance and valour keeps our nation safe” the PM tweeted after the visit.

PROVIDING a silver lining in the otherwise dark cloud of India-Pakistan relations, the two countries have signed a historic agreement on the Kartarpur corridor that will allow Indian pilgrims to undertake visa-free visit to the shrine of the Sikh religion’s founder Guru Nanak in Pakistan, fulfilling a long-pending wish. People in the two countries, Punjab in particular, have always viewed Partition with a sense of wistfulness. The loss of home and hearth in spite of the linguistic and cultural similarities continues to scar bilateral ties, the willingness to trust held back by a nagging negativity, rooted in the mindless violence of 1947 and subsequent skirmishes. The agreement, however, is  a positive development, showing political will on both sides of the Radcliffe line. Disagreement over visa fee remains, though other modalities have been worked out.

While there are misgivings about separatist groups using the facility to their own advantage, especially in view of Pakistan’s tacit backing to militancy in Punjab, in keeping with its philosophy of ‘bleeding India with a thousand cuts’, it may well offer an opportunity to dispel that notion, depending on how Pakistan handles it. The past is, however, not a positive indicator. Indian High Commission officials have been denied permission to meet the Indian pilgrims, leading to misgivings, but Pakistan has continued to allow the visits. An unconventional Prime Minister in Imran Khan, a cricketer, has not helped, and India will have to keep the safeguards in place, for the Pakistan army has always created a web of lies to justify its predominance over civilian governments.

Guru Nanak preached unity of mankind and symbolised values that have stood the test of time. His 550th birth anniversary will be an occasion to redeem commitment to our secular fabric. The irony is hard to miss. Pakistan, created on the basis of religion, is now trying to find a unifying force in religion. The future will be determined by whether they are able to build on the positivity brought about by this bridge-building.

Military Commentator

Our nuclear doctrine suffers from serious infirmities. It only deals with a nuclear conflict scenario. It does not get meshed with territorial security, which is the main Indian concern vis-a-vis China and due to which India went nuclear. India’s strategy has to be to deter/dissuade China from embarking on any large-scale offensive.

Our Correspondent

Jammu, October 21

Over 3,000 youths from Jammu turned up for 32 posts in the Territorial Army’s recruitment rally in the Bari Bramnah area of Jammu on Monday.

Amid complaints of large-scale unemployment in Jammu and Kashmir, the candidates expressed their gratitude to the Army for carrying out the recruitment rally to provide them some sought of livelihood.

The Army’s 157 Infantry Battalion (Territorial Army) (Home and Hearth) (Sikh) has been organising recruitment rally between October 21 and 25 at Bari-Bramnah, Jammu.

On the day one, candidates from RS Pura, Akhnoor, Bishnah and Nagrota tehsils of Jammu district took part in the recruitment rally, whereas candidates from Bari Brahmana, Vijaypur and Ramgarh tehsils of Samba and Teryath, Paoni and Reasi will participate in days to come. There are 32 posts of Soldier (General Duty) and two of Housekeeper.

“We have been witnessing a huge rush of youth willing to join the Army. This is an open recruitment rally for the areas specified in the notification. The candidates will undergo physical fitness tests, medical examination and other procedures during the recruitment rally,” an officer said.

It is vital to sensitise people, especially the Kashmiri youth, who may not be aware of the history of the event and of the brutality their forefathers were subjected to at the hands of Pakistan. Silence is no longer an option.

Tilak Devasher
Member, National Security Advisory Board

October 22, 1947, is perhaps the most critical date in J&K’s history. It was on this date that Pakistan-sponsored tribal ‘raiders’ invaded the state to forcibly annex it to the newly created country. The Maharaja of Kashmir had entered into a standstill agreement with Pakistan on August 12, 1947, under which Pakistan had undertaken not to unilaterally disturb the status quo i.e. continue to treat J&K as an independent state. Pakistan deliberately broke the agreement and invaded an independent state. The raiders, as is well known, indulged in an orgy of looting and violence and were ultimately repulsed by the Indian Army.

While Pakistan failed to forcibly annex the state, it did succeed in appropriating the entire narrative on Kashmir. On the one hand, it managed to mask its violation of the agreement and its 1947 invasion, and on the other, it succeeded in diverting the narrative by claiming that the accession of J&K to India was bogus and the entry of Indian troops in Kashmir on October 27, 1947, was illegal. Such a narrative has been bolstered by Pakistan observing for decades this day as ‘black day’.

Unfortunately, India has conceded this space and the narrative to Pakistan by not contesting it. There is a need to make a substantive push for observing the anniversary of the October 22 invasion as the real ‘black day’ in the history of Kashmir. This will sensitise people, especially the Kashmiri youth, who may not be aware of the history of the event and of the brutality their forefathers were subjected to at the hands of Pakistan. They need to be educated, if not reminded, that this was the day when the entire history of Kashmir was irreversibly distorted, how the princely state became an ‘issue’ and a ‘question’ and how historical facts were twisted to advance the Pakistani agenda. 

PoK author Mohammad Saeed Asad in his book Yaadon ke Zakhm (wounded memories) has collated a series of eyewitness accounts of the tribal invasion, especially in Muzaffarabad and its environs. These accounts are a brutal revelation for those who have forgotten the events or view Kashmir through tinted glasses.

The accounts underline the tolerant and peaceful nature of society in J&K before the tribesmen were unleashed upon the unsuspecting populace. Muzaffarabad had all three religious communities — Muslims, Hindus and Sikhs, with the Muslims being in a majority. All communities lived in harmony and interaction among them was of a very high order. The communities were not just friends, but their contact extended to all aspects of existence, including festivals, marriages and funerals. As one eyewitness put it, the interaction was far more amicable than the relationship among Muslims these days. 

The ransacking of Muzaffarabad by the raiders was comprehensive and devastating. The properties of Hindus and Sikhs were burnt and they were slaughtered. Their bodies lay in their homes or on the street for days. Many were thrown into the river. While they looted, the raiders hardly distinguished between Muslim and non-Muslim property. Thus, Muslim shops were equally ransacked and no Muslim home was spared from this tribal plunder. In places, even the holy Quran was desecrated. All the looted stuff was loaded onto trucks and sent to the Frontier.

According to an eyewitness, there wasn’t a village or hamlet on the way that the raiders didn’t plunder and ravage. While men were slaughtered, they would grab the jewellery belonging to women, irrespective of religion. If any woman dared protest, they would either yank the jewellery off or chop the body part with the jewellery. Many women read the kalma and pleaded for their lives but the raiders took no heed. Many women were taken back to the Frontier and sold to the highest bidder.

In India, Jehangir’s couplet about Kashmir being paradise is famous. Across the border, there is a somewhat comparable saying. Whenever poets, writers and intellectuals crossed the Kohala bridge over the Jhelum and entered J&K, they would instinctively exclaim in Farsi, ‘Man khuda rah deedum aah jabey hijab’ (I have witnessed God here in his full glory, uncovered).

That paradise was ripped apart on October 22, 1947. For the wounds to heal, those Pakistanis responsible for the original sin of the tribal invasion would have to be publicly identified, shamed and tried in the court of time. They are the real enemies of the Kashmiri people. Their action destroyed the unity of Kashmir and permanently damaged its social, religious, cultural and civilisational characteristics.

It is a tragedy of colossal proportions that Pakistan has gone unpunished for its crimes in Kashmir. Worse, it has managed to cloak its evil deeds from public gaze and in a sleight of hand, transferred the blame on to India. It is only when events are organised about what really happened then that the full extent of Pakistan’s culpability for the situation in Kashmir will be known to the people of Kashmir themselves. Silence and apathy are no longer options.

Pakistan had signed a similar standstill agreement with the Khan of Kalat on August 4, 1947, assuring that it would be an independent country. Like in the case of Kashmir, Pakistan broke that agreement, too, in March 1948 and forcibly annexed Kalat. Pakistan’s subsequent history shows a continued disdain for its international commitments, emboldened, no doubt, because it has never been held accountable.

Between the signing of the NFA in August 2015 and now, the NSCN IM has issued statements contradicting the government’s claim that it had accepted the Indian Constitution. On the contrary, it has been saying that it wants a separate Constitution, flag and integration of all contiguous Naga-inhabited areas under Nagalim (Greater Nagaland).

Maj-Gen Ashok Mehta (retd)
Defence commentator

Last Saturday, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), the dominant Naga armed rebel group engaged in the 22-year-old peace process with the Centre, held yet another round of talks, this time presumably with National Security Adviser Ajit Doval on board in New Delhi to break the impasse. The NSCN-IM said the government was trying to backtrack on its commitment to a solution embedded in the Naga Framework Accord of August 3, 2015 by using a group of Nagas who do not represent the Naga people. This critique of the Centre by the NSCN-IM is a significant development unravelling the NFA.

Additionally, the defanging of Article 370 has sown seeds of doubt and uncertainty among some north-eastern states about the government’s commitment to special powers allocated to them. Worse, it has brought the tom-tommed NFA to a cul de sac. After the success of nullifying Article 370, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had ordered special interlocutor RN Ravi to bring to fruition the NFA by October-end. Nagaland was the first state after J&K to be covered by the 13th Amendment of 1962 which granted it special powers in respect of its identity, culture and social practices — almost akin to J&K — under Article 371-A of the Constitution. In 1963, it was granted full statehood.

The report of the Parliamentary Select Committee attached to the Home Ministry of July 2018 laid in the Rajya Sabha stated that the NSCN IM had agreed to a political settlement within the Indian Constitution with special status. Between the signing of the NFA in August 2015 and now, the NSCN-IM has issued several statements contradicting the government’s claim that it had accepted the Indian Constitution. On the contrary, it has been saying that it wants a separate Constitution, flag and integration of all contiguous Naga-inhabited areas under Nagalim (Greater Nagaland). Ravi has articulated that the first two demands — Constitution and flag — were never on offer. But the Nagas have been saying that their merger with the Union of India could never happen. Instead, the Nagas will co-exist as two entities. The Nagas do not accept the Constitution of India, but the Nagas and India will share sovereignty. So, did the government sell a lemon to the country in August 2015?

On August 24, 2019, NSCN-IM Chairman Q Tuccu and General Secretary Muivah wrote a letter to Modi, stating that there cannot be an honourable solution to the Naga peace process without a separate flag and Constitution, two symbols of special status that were first to go in J&K. Muivah said that the Centre had misinterpreted the term ‘inclusive’ in the NFA, adding that it does not mean the Nagas will be included in the Union of India. ‘We have never been in the Union of India and we will never be,’ the Nagas are saying. So close to a solution and yet so far.

A round of talks was held on August 1 at NSCN-IM headquarters at Mount Hebron which apparently did not go well and broke up in discord. This was immediately after Ravi was promoted to Governor of Nagaland. The Naga Army of NSCN-IM which is technically confined to Mount Hebron was involved in at least five cases of armed clashes and confrontation with security forces this year. Ravi has claimed that all substantive issues in the NFA have been resolved — nothing is left — and assured the Nagas that Article 371 A, which is a solemn commitment and not impermanent like Article 370, will not be repealed. He explained that there is no similarity between Articles 370 and 371 A, adding that the Centre is trying to make it more than 371 A and there is no question of diluting it. Ravi said the intended solution recognises the Nagas’ unique history and the settlement is on the basis of power-sharing and peaceful co-existence. He asserted that the Centre has accepted the integration of Naga areas, adding the red herring that it is the legitimate right of the Naga people to pursue and achieve integration through democratic and political process. 

The government might allow a pan-Naga Assembly if it is restricted to culture, religion and tribal practices, after the BJP-ruled states like Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, where the Nagas reside, show the green flag. Craftily, Ravi has also been negotiating with seven other former Naga rebel outfits with which he signed an agreement in November 2017 which has upset the NSCN-IM which claims to be the sole representative of all Naga people.

Last month, Home Minister Amit Shah, attending the North Eastern Council meeting said that Articles 371 A to G will not be touched. Sikkim, covered by Article 371 F, was also worried and the new state government has decided to support the BJP at the Centre. The Parliament cannot legislate to alter special status granted to states covered by Article 371 without the concurrence of the Legislative Assembly, a constitutional imperative the Centre fraudulently overcame in the case of the J&K. Still, people in the North-East are restive after the introduction of the National Register of Citizens (NRC). Chief Minister of Nagaland Neiphieu Rio said at the NEC that the Centre should act north-east, before acting east.

The biggest gainer of the imbroglio of NFA, in a sense, is its mastermind and interlocutor Ravi who was Special Director IB in 2012, then chairman JIC before he was elevated to Deputy National Security Adviser, followed by the Governor Nagaland. The Americans would describe a person of his Sputnik-like rise as a ‘water-walker’. He is now the constitutional head of a state and his added role as negotiator in talks with the Naga people would be questionable. More questionable is the fate of the NFA: more fiction than fact? Or, so close and yet so far? The NFA has become make-believe.